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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2019-03-15 17:24 UTC
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352 FXUS64 KFWD 151724 AAB AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 .AVIATION... /18z TAFs/ VFR with no major aviation concerns through the valid TAF cycle. Breezy and occasionally gusty northerly winds will persist this afternoon, but these will subside quickly this evening as the boundary layer decouples and high pressure builds in overhead. Surface winds will veer more out of the NE on Saturday at speeds generally under 6-8 kts. A passing sprinkle can't be ruled out at Waco as a weak disturbance pivots across the area, but no operational impacts are expected. Carlaw && .UPDATE... /Issued 959 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ Main update to the going forecast was to beef up sky cover based on morning satellite trends mainly for locales south of I-20. Reinforcing cooler (and drier) air continues to filter into the region on breezy northwest winds and, as a result, high temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than they were on Thursday. A shortwave riding along the southwesterly flow aloft should result in the development of mid-high level radar echoes this afternoon, but the very dry airmass below 700 mb should hold any of this activity to mainly virga. Can't rule out a couple sprinkles across parts of Central Texas, but chances for measurable precipitation will remain under 10 percent. Updated products have been transmitted. Carlaw && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 258 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ Elevated moisture associated with a fairly broad upper trough off the coast of Southern California will keep a stream of mid and high clouds from the Rio Grande Valley to the Arklatex and points south today. Dry and cool air will remain in place in the low levels of the atmosphere as surface high pressure builds southward from the Central High Plains. This dry air should keep any light precipitation that falls from the mid level clouds across Central Texas from reaching the ground. Temperatures today will be a bit cool due to continued cold air advection, and breezy north winds will make it feel even cooler. Afternoon highs should still manage to reach the mid and upper 50s. Temperatures tonight will fall rapidly after sunset as the boundary layer decouples and wind speeds drop below 10 mph. The only thing that will offset the radiational cooling will be some lingering high clouds, especially across Central Texas. Lows tonight will be some of the coldest we have seen in awhile with mainly lower and middle 30s. Some of the western and northern zones may briefly reach freezing just before sunrise Saturday. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 258 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ /Saturday through Thursday/ A quiet weather pattern is expected this weekend through much of the coming week with generally west to southwest flow aloft and a very slow return of low level moisture. Some weak shortwaves will translate across the state the first half of the week, but will produce little more than an increase in clouds. The upper pattern will become a bit more amplified the second half of the week as another low pressure system develops across the Desert Southwest, resulting in ridging across the Central and Southern Plains. Low level moisture will increase in response to the approaching system, yielding warmer temperatures and more clouds. The upper low is progged to reach the Four Corners region around Thursday before lifting to the Central Plains on Friday or Saturday. There are timing differences among the GFS and ECMWF, but regardless all precipitation associated with this system should occur beyond this forecast valid time. After a cool start to the weekend with highs Saturday generally around 60, a gradual warmup will occur through the week. Highs should reach the lower 60s Sunday, mid 60s Monday and Tuesday with upper 60s and lower 70s returning Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will be generally in the 40s, with the exception of Sunday and Monday mornings when many locations will fall into the middle and upper 30s. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 37 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 5 0 Waco 58 36 60 39 62 / 5 0 5 10 0 Paris 56 34 60 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 58 34 60 37 63 / 0 0 0 5 0 McKinney 57 34 59 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 59 38 62 41 64 / 0 0 0 5 0 Terrell 58 35 61 39 63 / 0 0 0 5 0 Corsicana 58 37 60 40 62 / 0 0 0 5 0 Temple 58 36 59 39 62 / 10 0 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 58 34 60 37 63 / 0 0 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 90/05