National Weather Service Raw Text Product

537 
FXUS64 KFWD 150433
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1133 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

A dry airmass across the lower levels will lead to a continuation
of VFR conditions through the next 24-30 hours across North and 
Central Texas. Northerly winds continue to be on the breezy side, 
with sustained winds anywhere between 12-18 kts. It is possible 
that those wind speeds remain through the rest of the night given
the 25+ knots above 500 feet AGL. 

With a surface ridge situated across West Texas and a weak 
shortwave moving across the Southern Plains on Friday, the surface
pressure gradient will increase in the afternoon, leading to a 
slight increase in the winds along with increasingly gusty 
conditions. Given the northerly wind direction, no major crosswind
concerns are anticipated with the north-south oriented runways. 

The aformentioned shortwave will help draw moisture northward 
through the afternoon, bringing a veil of mid-level clouds mainly
into Central Texas. No impacts are expected given VFR will
continue. 

Hernandez

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/
/Tonight/

Subsidence will rule in the short term on the heels of the storm 
system currently plaguing the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. This
should keep conditions mostly clear across North and Central 
Texas with merely the occasional passing cirrus to contend with. 
Cold air advection will continue at the surface as high pressure 
spreads southeastward behind this morning's cold front. This will 
maintain the northwesterly winds at the surface, though speeds 
should decrease below 10 MPH after sunset due to the partial 
decoupling of low level flow. Radiative cooling conditions may not
be ideal tonight due to winds remaining in the 5 to 10 MPH range,
but temperatures should still fall 7 to 10 degrees below normal. 
Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s along the Red River to 
the lower and middle 40s across the southern zones. 

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/
/Friday and beyond/

After a fairly active weather period over the last few days and an
active start to the spring severe weather season, the next several
days looks fairly tranquil. The GFS and ECMWF generally agree on
the larger scale details through the long-term portion of the
forecast. Texas should remain generally under zonal 500 mb flow,
with perhaps even slight ridging.

Temperatures should remain a little below normal through the next
few days as north flow remains in place across the region thanks
to a large area of high pressure over the western half of the
interior United States. This should also keep humidity on the
lower side, leading to a very pleasant weekend (though perhaps
slightly cool depending on your personal preferences) with highs 
in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s. Should be an excellent 
weekend to get outdoors and maybe do a little hiking.

Late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, a very weak impulse
may move through the 500 mb flow, leading to weak ascent. This
will likely be manifested in no more than an increase in mid and
high clouds, though perhaps a few light showers will be possible
(thus carried some slight chance PoPs in our southern counties
early Sunday morning), but likely not anything that would be
particularly disruptive to outdoor plans.

Heading into next week, the weather looks to remain dry, with a
gradual warming trend. Temperatures should get back to near
seasonal normals by mid-week. The next chance for precipitation 
will probably be towards the end of next week or even next weekend
(beyond the range of this forecast) as model guidance shows an 
upper-level trough digging into the Desert Southwest around this 
time period.

Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  58  36  56  39 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Waco                42  57  35  55  38 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Paris               38  56  34  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              36  56  34  55  36 /   0   0   0   0   5 
McKinney            37  56  34  54  36 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Dallas              41  58  36  56  39 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Terrell             39  58  34  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Corsicana           41  57  35  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Temple              41  57  36  54  38 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Mineral Wells       36  57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   0  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08