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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2019-02-18 09:13 UTC
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009 FXUS64 KEWX 180913 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 313 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 .SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... An abundance of mid and high level clouds continues to stream across the area within a strong jet axis across the southern CONUS. Temperatures are currently in the 40s across much of the area with moderate northeast winds continuing. For today, dry weather is expected to continue with a large amount of dry air underneath the moistening mid-levels. With the continued cloud cover, high temperatures today will top out in the 50s in the north to the middle 60s in the south and west. A deep trough axis is currently located in the the southwest CONUS which is oddly enough bringing snow to Las Vegas at the present time. This trough axis will slowly translate to the east today and tonight and the low-levels of the atmosphere will begin to moisten mainly after 6z. Therefore, will keep a dry forecast through 6z and will begin to show some PoPs mainly in the southeast CWA for the remainder of the night. This activity should remain light in intensity with average rainfal amounts remaining less than a tenth of an inch. For tomorrow, rain chances will increase further as a coastal low develops. This feature should increase low-level lift across our eastern counties tomorrow morning and will show PoPs ranging from the 20 percent near the Rio Grande to 80 percent across the northern counties. This activity should begin to shift to the east in the afternoon as the surface trough moves east. Rainfall accumulations during the day tomorrow will average less than a quarter of an inch. The continued cloud cover and areas of light rain should keep temperatures cool and opted to side with the cooler members of guidance and will show highs tomorrow ranging from the 40s where rain chances remain highest to the lower 60s near the Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Rain chances will decrease Tuesday night as a weak cold front moves through the area. Some of the high-res guidance and ECMWF are showing some possible light rain or drizzle along the front. Wednesday will be the only other dry day in the work week besides today as slightly drier air filters into the area. West winds will help temperatures warm with highs in the 60s across the CWA. Rain chances return to the forecast late Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak upper level disturbance moves near the region and another coastal low develops. Rain chances will continue through Saturday afternoon as southwest flow aloft promotes weak ascent within low- level warm air advection. A dry west wind is expected by Saturday afternoon which is expected to finally clear things out. Sunday should also remain dry. Highs Thursday will be int he 50s and 60s with the clouds and rain, but will warm into the 70s on Saturday with the west winds back in the area. Highs Sunday will be slightly cooler. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 58 42 48 41 64 / 0 30 70 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 58 42 47 41 63 / 0 40 70 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 43 50 41 65 / 0 30 60 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 53 39 44 37 62 / 0 20 70 20 - Del Rio Intl Airport 65 47 62 43 66 / 0 10 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 54 40 45 39 62 / 0 30 80 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 62 45 54 41 67 / 0 20 40 20 - San Marcos Muni Airport 60 42 49 41 65 / 0 40 60 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 45 50 43 62 / 0 40 70 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 62 44 51 43 67 / 0 20 50 20 - Stinson Muni Airport 63 45 53 44 67 / 0 20 50 20 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...17 Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire