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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ Received: 2022-03-04 19:40 UTC
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FXUS64 KEPZ 041940
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1240 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE...
Deteriorating flying conditions as we move into the afternoon
thanks to a passing storm system. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
due to blowing dust from strong gusty winds in the lowlands. VIS
reductions down to 2 SM are possible. Isolated areas with lower
VIS are possible too. We'll be watching KDMN closely as it's had
visibilities reduced to 0.5 miles the past few dust events due to
a localized dust source. Currently, and this afternoon, expect SW
wind speeds at 15-30 kts and gusts up to 45-50 kts. Winds start
to subside in the early evening, but the passage of a cold front
will keep gusty winds during the evening, especially along east-
slope locations. An AWW for KELP currently ends at 8Z Saturday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MST Fri Mar 4 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring a few light early morning showers
followed by warm temperatures, strong southwest winds, and blowing
dust this afternoon. Cooler temperatures and lighter west winds
will occur Saturday. Strong west winds and blowing dust will
return on Sunday as another weather system moves through the
state. Unsettled weather will continue for the first part of next
week as a strong cold front drops temperatures below normal while
a another weather system brings the slight possibility of showers
to the area on Tuesday. Dry and quieter weather is expected for
the rest of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Light rain showers continue across the western portions of the CWA.
Rainfall amounts registered over the last 6 hours remain under 0.15
inches. Rain showers will move closer to the El Paso and Las Cruces
metro areas, as well as Alamogordo in the next few hours. If any
rain falls, it is expected to be light. The HREF members show the
rain showers ending between 7-10 AM from southwest to northeast as
this activity moves to the north-northeast.
An upper level trough near SoCal starts a northeasterly track
towards the Four Corners area early this morning. This track will
push the moisture out of the region, and bring dry and warm
continental air towards southern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Surface dewpoints drop from the 30s and 40s early this morning to
the teens this afternoon. Precipitable water also drops from the 0.4-
0.75 inches early this morning, down to 0.2 by the mid-afternoon.
So, we will dry out quickly as winds become from the southwest and
pick up in strength as a lee-cyclone develops in eastern CO
tightening the pressure gradient and an upper jet stream moves over
southern NM.
The 850 mb winds with the GFS and ECMWF are around 25 to 35 kts in
areas west of the Rio Grande. East of the river 850 winds are
between 20 to 30 kts. Hi-res models show strong and gusty surface
winds across the western half of the CWA with lighter winds out
east, except for the Sacramento Mountains where strong and gusty
winds are expected this afternoon. Therefore, we have a wind
advisory in effect for the western half of the CWA including the
Sacs due to winds between 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph from
11 AM to 8 PM. The combination of the strong and gusty winds and the
dry weather also brings high fire danger concerns for the same
areas. For this reason, there is also a red flag warning in effect
for this afternoon and early evening. Another hazard expected
today is the development of blowing dust. The strong gusty winds
will be able to lift more dust this afternoon. Although, it
shouldn't be as dusty due to the rain earlier this morning, but it
will still cause some visibility reductions.
The pressure gradient remains tight in the evening and overnight
hours as the Pacific cold front associated to the upper trough moves
through the area this evening. So, winds will loose intensity after
sunset, but gusty winds will continue through a good portion of the
night as the front passes through the region. Currently, decided to
let the wind advisory expire at 8 PM for most of the area, except
for the Sacs. The advisory was extended through 2 AM in the higher
elevations and east slopes of the Sacs. Winds should finally drop
below criteria after 2 AM.
Temperatures today will warm a couple of degrees from yesterday with
the clearing skies and the advection of dry and warm air ahead of
the cold front. Overnight, even though the breezy winds persist, the
front brings colder air behind it leading to cooler morning lows
tomorrow morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...
Southern New Mexico and far west Texas will remain at the base of
a deep broad trough the covers the western and central portions
of the country. This pattern will keep the weather pattern active
and unsettled through Tuesday. Main impacts will be winds and
blowing dust with only occasional light showers mixed in.
On Saturday, the region will be between weather systems, one
departing and one approaching with no chance for showers. Winds
are not expected to be as strong with mainly west winds in the 15
to 25 mph range in the afternoon. Temperatures will 10 to 12
degrees cooler than Friday and closer to seasonal averages in the
afternoon.
Strong winds and blowing dust will return on Sunday as another
large system moves through central and northern New Mexico just
north of the local area. As temperatures warm in the afternoon,
stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface, combined with a
tightening surface pressure gradient to generate wind speeds in
the 25 to 35 range with gusts near 50 mph. Locally stronger winds
will occur through mountain passes and along ridge lines and east
slopes of local mountain ranges. Patchy blowing dust will also
occur for dust prone areas of the lowland deserts, especially
along the Interstate 10 corridor.
Calmer conditions are expected Monday as the weather system
departs the region and the pressure gradient relaxes across the
state. Temperatures will run several degrees cooler and below
normal for Monday. A backdoor cold front advancing through the
region Monday night will further enhance colder temperatures on
Tuesday with lower to middle 50s expected for the lowlands upper
30s to mid 40s for the mountains during day.
Yet another weather system will move through the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Models remain uncertain on the track of this
system but it is possible that core of low pressure system will
pass close to the area for a slight chance of light showers and
light mountain snow showers. Temperatures will remain below normal
on Wednesday.
Dryer and quieter weather conditions are expected Thursday into
next Friday as a dry northwest flow gets established over the
area. Winds will be lighter with temperatures beginning to
rebound back to near seasonal averages which means lower 70s for
the lowlands with 50s and 60s for the mountains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No major changes from yesterday's forecast. We are entering an
active weather period this weekend and next week. Early this morning
we have been experiencing light rain showers across portions of the
region. This light shower activity will be ending this morning. An
upper level trough that is moving towards the Four Corners area will
push dry and warm air quickly this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front this evening. So, even though, we had some rain this morning,
all of this moist air mass will be pushed out quickly with minimum
relative humidity dropping to the lower teens this afternoon.
Furthermore, we are expecting strong and gusty winds (25 to 35 mph
and gusts to 50 mph), as well as a high to very high fire danger
risk. Therefore, we have a Red Flag Warning in effect for this
afternoon and early evening.
Tomorrow, weather conditions will improve but we are going to remain
breezy to windy across the area as we remain under the influence of
a broad upper trough. There is another wave expected on Sunday too.
Anyway, winds continue to be from the southwest with speeds around
15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures behind the cold
front will lead to slightly wetter conditions, especially for area
mountains, where relative humidity will be in the upper teens and
20s. The rest of the area remains in the mid to lower teens.
On Sunday, conditions deteriorate again as the wave I mentioned
earlier passes through the region. West to southwest winds rise up
again to 20 to 35 mph with stronger gusts across the area, while min
RH remains dry in the lowlands. Thus, critical fire weather
conditions are possible again.
Early next week, conditions slightly improve as we lose the winds,
but dry weather continues, as well as another upper level storm
system passes through the region. A backdoor cold front brings
breezy to windy conditions on Tuesday, while the next wave brings
back another chance for light rain. At least temperatures will be
lower early next week. Ventilation ates will be very good to
excellent today and through the weekend, then deteriorate a bit
early next week.
&&
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 44 71 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 38 66 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 38 69 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 35 66 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 25 43 28 39 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 38 67 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 32 57 31 47 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 35 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 31 67 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 42 70 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 38 68 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 39 73 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 37 63 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 39 72 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 37 69 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 42 68 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 37 66 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 37 68 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 37 71 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 38 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 31 57 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 28 54 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 26 53 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 24 63 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 35 63 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 33 66 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 57 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 29 60 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 25 66 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 32 58 30 49 / 20 20 10 0
Faywood 32 61 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 30 69 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 30 68 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 34 68 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 32 62 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ110>112.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ402>411.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM MST Saturday for NMZ415-416.
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for TXZ055-056.
&&
$$