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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-03-15 18:29 UTC
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342 FXUS64 KCRP 151829 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 .DISCUSSION... Updated to extend the Small Craft Advisory to the southern bays until 21z based on recent observations/deterministic model output. Note Aviation discussion below corresponding to the 18z TAFs. && .AVIATION... Predominate VFR conditions expected during the period, except for brief MVFR ceilings near isolated showers generally 12-16z Saturday over the southern Coastal Bend. Moderate/breezy north wind this afternoon will transition to light overnight/early Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated forecast for the near shore marine to include mention of slight chance of thunderstorms this morning. See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs. AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Mid level clouds will continue to increase through the day. Reinforcing high pressure has arrived early this morning with gusty north-northeast winds over the coastal plains. The winds will gradually subside by the afternoon. Isolated showers could affect the coastal areas this morning. Better chance for showers will be possible during the evening and nighttime hours over the Coastal Bend as an upper level disturbance moves across. These showers could provide brief MVFR vsbys this evening and overnight. Ceilings are expected to remain above 3 kft. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 430 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... Surface high pressure continues to build south toward the region this morning with windy conditions already occurring along the coast. Latest MSAS analysis shows the secondary surge of colder air moving south through central Texas and expect this air mass will be in the area before daybreak. Weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft is interacting with elevated moisture to provide isolated showers along the coast and scattered showers over the Gulf waters early this morning and will continue for today. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to be offshore where mid level lapse rates are steeper. Another short wave trough will move into the region tonight, with MOS guidance and HRRR/Texas Tech WRF showing a bit better coverage of showers for the coastal plains into the waters. Adequate moisture and weak impulses in the southwest flow aloft will keep a chance of rain in the forecast for Saturday for the coastal plains. Temperatures will be quite cool over the next couple of days as high pressure moves into the region and cloud cover remains in place. Highs will be 60-65 today and 55-60 on Saturday. Tide levels are running around 1.25 feet above expected early this morning. Wave watch models shows swells of 6 to 8 feet moving toward the coast today. ETSS and P-ETSS are showing the tide levels at Bob Hall Pier reaching 1.8 feet this afternoon around the time of high tide. But ETSS/P-ETSS are not showing the anomaly as high as it is currently. So will go on the safe side and issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for this afternoon for the beaches south of Port Aransas with minor tidal overflow expected here. Wave watch model shows higher swells impacting the Middle Texas coast. Even though the winds are alongshore with north-northeast winds, swells with high periods will provide a moderate risk of rip currents for Gulf facing beaches today through Saturday. LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)... A reinforcing surge of high pressure will help to keep temps cool on Sunday with much of the region struggling to reach the mid 60s. Lows will fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday and Monday night. Winds will remain out of the north-northeast to kick off the work week. An upper level disturbance will help to keep us cloudy throughout the weekend with best chance for precip along the coast and over the waters. Another upper level disturbance will slide just south of the region early next week. Could see some showers with this feature as PWATs will be around 1.3" across the Southern Coastal Bend and over the Gulf waters. We begin to dry out mid week as a mid level ridge builds in overhead. As onshore flow returns, moisture will begin to pool along the Rio Grande. Model soundings hint at PWATs reaching ~1.5" towards the end of the work week. The forecast then becomes a bit tricky. An upper level low will form across the southwest U.S. late Thursday into early Friday. Models vary right now on location and timing on this feature. The GFS is the fastest right now with the low lifting to the NE out of Texas Friday evening. The Euro lags by a good bit. An associated cold front will swing across the state towards the end of the period. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely as low level moisture pools (PWATS ~1.25") and instability increases (MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg) ahead of the boundary. After a cooler start to the week, temps will rebound into the mid 70s by Thursday as onshore flow strengthens and skies clear. MARINE... Strong offshore flow will continue over the Gulf waters today as high pressure builds into the area. Wind gusts will be near gale over the offshore waters. Winds are expected to subside for the bays by this afternoon and for the near shore waters by this evening. Extended the SCA for the offshore waters through tonight as elevated seas will be slow to subside and a strong north to northeast flow will likely continue over this region into Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible today through Saturday as upper level impulses in the southwest flow aloft move across the waters. A series of upper level disturbances will maintain rain chances over the waters early next week. Weak to moderate northeast flow will continue through mid week before winds gradually veer to the east. Onshore flow will strengthen ahead of an approaching low pressure system late next week leading to likely SCA conditions. Although the threat does not look as high as over the next couple of days, we could see another round of minor coastal flooding Saturday night (ESTOFS/P-ETSS output indicates water levels nearing 2ft). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 47 56 48 62 50 / 40 30 30 30 10 Victoria 45 55 45 63 45 / 20 20 20 20 10 Laredo 48 57 46 62 49 / 10 10 20 10 20 Alice 46 56 46 61 46 / 30 30 30 20 10 Rockport 47 56 50 63 52 / 40 30 30 30 10 Cotulla 46 56 43 63 46 / 10 10 20 10 10 Kingsville 47 56 48 62 49 / 30 30 30 20 20 Navy Corpus 49 57 53 63 56 / 40 30 30 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening For the following zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...AVIATION