National Weather Service Raw Text Product

892 
FXUS64 KCRP 090606 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1206 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 06z aviation. 

&&

.AVIATION...

Patchy fog with IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsbys have developed at VCT late 
this evening with MVFR/VFR ceilings elsewhere. Chances for 
showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight into Friday as 
frontal boundary begins to impact the area. Timing of shra/tsra 
was updated based on latest trends and hi-res guidance. Further 
amendments may be needed during the night. Gusty northerly winds 
will develop in wake of the cold front Friday. Some gusts between 
25 and 30 knots will be possible throughout the day. Rain chances 
will also continue behind the front through at least the afternoon
hours. Lower confidence of precip Friday evening will preclude a 
mention in the forecast at this time. Generally, IFR to MVFR 
ceilings can be expected through much of the period. 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1007 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

The forecast is in good shape this evening. The main reason for
the update was to flip Gale Watch over to Gale Warning (see
below). Otherwise, strong cold front is on track to move through 
South Texas overnight into early Friday morning. An upper level 
disturbance combined with the front will generate sufficient lift 
for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Chances will increase 
after midnight as indicated by hi-res guidance. Some of these 
storms could be strong to marginally severe with hail being the 
main hazard. Some brief heavy downpours may also accompany these 
showers and storms. The boundary should be completely through the
region by midday tomorrow with much cooler air spilling into South
Texas. Temperatures will only be in the 50s and 60s with brisk
northerly winds.

MARINE...

Confidence is increasing that gale conditions will occur behind
the cold front Friday morning. The Gale Watch has been upgraded 
to a Gale Warning for the Gulf Waters. Northerly winds between 25 
and 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force will be likely
Friday through Saturday morning. Hazardous seas between 8 and 12 
feet with occasional higher seas will also be possible. Over the 
bays and waterways, small craft advisory conditions will be common
with winds 20 to 25 knots and gusts to around 30 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation. 

AVIATION...

Main issues this taf period will be the potential for thunderstorms
and a strong cold front. Currently, ceilings range from VFR at 
ALI/CRP/LRD to MVFR at VCT. Expect ceilings to gradually lower 
this evening and overnight across the rest of the area. In
addition, chances for showers will increase as a cold front
approaches South Texas. The potential will also exist for
thunderstorms to develop, and have mentioned TSRA primarily during
the overnight hours. Locally reduced vsbys will be possible if
showers and storms directly impact the terminals. Northerly winds
will increase Friday morning in wake of the cold front with gusts
between 25 and 30 knots. Ceilings through the period will
generally be MVFR to IFR.  

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Initial weak cold front stalled out mid-way through the forecast
area around mid-day and has remained there or drifted just a bit
back to the north this afternoon. Ahead of the front temperatures
have been in the mid and upper 80s with temperatures behind the
front in the lower to mid 70s. Next cold front remains well to the
north, but will surge southward and through the area overnight.
Before that front makes it this far south, a mid level shortwave
will move across the region, over some moderate unstable air above
the shallow morning front. Surface dewpoints even behind the front
are in the 70s. Afternoon run of several meso models have gotten
more robust with convective initiation late this evening as the
shortwave moves across. Could be getting some storms into
northwest zones after 9pm. With some elevated instability, there
will be some potential for marginal to large hail with any of the
stronger storms. This activity looks to merge together and move
across the CWA overnight with a decreasing threat for any strong
storms. PWATs are progged to be quite high for this time of
year...around 2 inches for portions of the area. This will likely
lead to some moderate to heavy downpours tonight into Friday.

Frontal timing is similar to previous...but maybe an hour or so
slower. Far southeastern areas...Corpus Christi and Kingsville
areas may wake up to temperatures in the 70s, but this will
quickly be replace by temperatures in the 60s by 8am. Once the
initial push of the front moves through a continued gradual
decrease in temperatures can be expected with afternoon
temperatures generally in the 50s. Will continue high chances for
showers through the day before front moves through in the mid
levels. This w By Friday night will see a gradual decrease in 
PoPs.

Despite continued cloud cover will likely see low temperates into
the 40s for much of the area...with lower 50s near the coast,
especially in the southern Coastal Bend. 

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

The GFS deterministic predicts isentropic lift/low condensation 
pressure deficits over the CWA Saturday/Sunday. In addition, a 
coastal trough develops Saturday night/Sunday (deterministic 
runs/GFS ensemble mean.) Near/above normal PWAT values predicted 
Saturday/Sunday per the GFS deterministic. Anticipate a mixture of
stratiform and convective activity with patchy/areas of light 
rain and isolated/scattered showers Saturday/Sunday over the CWA, 
with greatest chance near the coast/coastal trough. Expect the 
anticipated increasing synoptic scale lift associated with an 
upper disturbance approaching from the W/NW (deterministic 
output), and the associated cold front, to increase the chance for
convection Monday. Colder and drier Monday night/Tuesday in 
response to the cold front. Anticipate coldest temperatures in the
mid/upper 30s early Wednesday morning. Isentropic lift may 
develop Thursday, yet not confident enough to add precipitation in
part due to uncertainty regarding condensation pressure deficits.

MARINE... A strong cold front will move offshore late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Northern portions of the area will see the
front move offshore between 4 and 6AM, while farther south near
Baffin Bay, the front will likely move through after sunrise. Once
the front does move through expect very strong winds to develop
behind it. Have issued a small craft advisory for bays beginning
at 6am and will continue gale watch for open waters from 9am
through Friday night. The gale watch is for the potential for
frequent gusts at or above gale force. Gale conditions may 
continue Saturday when considering SREF probabilities of >25kt 
wind. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms anticipated for
Saturday night/Sunday in response to a developing coastal trough.
Combination of strong upper dynamics/surface cold front may 
result in at least scattered convection Monday night. Gale 
conditions may occur again Monday night/Tuesday in response to the
cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  63  50  57  51  /  80  80  60  30  30 
Victoria          55  59  46  56  47  / 100  80  30  20  30 
Laredo            57  60  49  54  48  /  90  70  40  20  20 
Alice             58  60  50  55  48  /  90  80  50  30  20 
Rockport          59  61  50  58  52  /  80  80  50  30  40 
Cotulla           55  59  49  54  46  / 100  70  30  10  10 
Kingsville        61  63  51  57  50  /  80  80  60  30  30 
Navy Corpus       62  66  54  60  56  /  80  80  70  30  40 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday For the 
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port 
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay 
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday For 
     the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to 
     Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port 
     O'Connor.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION