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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2018-10-11 19:57 UTC
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361 FXUS64 KBRO 111957 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A surface boundary associated with a cold is still analyzed to be sagging south over the lower CWA. Convection has been developing on and riding along this boundary all day, complicated by pulses of mid level energy moving in on southwest flow aloft and an abnormally deep, saturated moisture column. That said, the short term models shift the focus of precip farther south and west tonight as the relentless advance of incoming high pressure seems to finally win the battle and push the boundary farther inland and away from the CWA. Rain chances won't totally end tonight, but intrusions from the south should be restrained. On Friday into Friday night, more isolated coverage will occur, again moving over the lower to mid valley from the southeast. This due to the main high pressure over the plains shifting farther to the east on Friday, with local winds veering to southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail in the short term with a mix of low and high clouds. Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s with high temps in the 80s to near 90. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): Mostly zonal flow aloft to start off the long term as a rather "flat" H5 high sits just south of the forecast area. To the north, the remnants of Sergio will be sliding northeast as a extratropical entity across the Red River Valley and eventually into the Missouri River Valley. Although there isn't a strong QPF signal during the early weekend, expect some sea breeze activity to kick up a few isolated showers and storms. A closed upper level begins to settled southward across coastal California on Saturday. At the same time, a Canadian impulse/surface front surges southward toward the central US late in the weekend and eventually making it's way all the way to the Rio Grande by Monday. With the approaching front and ample low level moisture expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the cold frontal boundary. As the front passes, expect winds to transition to a more northeasterly direction. At the surface post FROPA models are still showing some hints at some coastal troughing and isentropic upglide. Climo this time of year isn't very supportive of prolonged coastal trough that is being displayed by the ECM and CMC. Expect a rather speedy rebound after a day or two of damp, cool, and gloomy conditions on Tuesday...again based on climo and typical biases within the globals to want to hang onto coastal trough a bit longer. && .MARINE (Tonight through Friday Night): Conditions will slowly improve in the short term. Offshore wave heights tonight of 4 to 6 feet will still be enough to necessitate small craft should exercise caution conditions, but wave heights should be down to moderate everywhere on Friday. East winds will become moderate southeast on Friday. (Saturday through Thursday): Moderate winds and seas expected as pressure gradient gradually tightens between high pressure across the eastern US and leeside deepening of low pressure across N Mexico. This should be enough to perhaps push conditions into cautionary wording by the middle or end of the upcoming weekend. A strong cold front then surges southward into the region on Monday. Winds will sharply transition to an easterly or northeasterly direction behind the front. Winds will increase to around 20-25kts and seas will dramatically increase. Guidance still picks up on coastal troughing through much of the long term marine period. Kept winds and seas at low-end SCA criteria at the very least the the end of the cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 87 78 88 / 10 10 20 20 BROWNSVILLE 77 89 78 89 / 30 20 30 20 HARLINGEN 75 89 76 90 / 10 20 20 20 MCALLEN 76 89 76 92 / 20 20 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 90 75 94 / 30 20 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 80 85 / 10 10 30 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Short Term/Aviation...54 Long Term/RDA...Frye-55