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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAMA Received: 2019-02-11 23:23 UTC
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985 FXUS64 KAMA 112323 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 523 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Mid level clouds should exit out of the area on the back side of the frontal system and clearing skies are anticipated. Clear skies may not completely occur for all TAF sites until the 6-9z period. Until then, prevailing winds will still be out of the west, shifting more northwest and northerly after 3z. KGUY could see northerly winds shortly after the start of the TAF period, given the cold front just entered Oklahoma. Light showers that may linger around the TAF sites could provide occasional winds out of different directions. Once the front is through all sites, expect mostly northerly winds in the 10 to 15kt range. Wind should calm down to less than 10kts after 12z. Weber && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday This afternoon will provide the only shot for the Panhandles to receive precipitation in the short term. Robust wave seen on satellite over northern New Mexico will translate eastward late this afternoon and evening. Southerly flow the last couple days has allowed at least some moisture to become present in the mid levels across the Panhandles. While this has been counteracted by dry southwesterly flow today, surface temperatures in the southern two- thirds of the Texas Panhandle may yet reach their convective temperature this afternoon as the surface heats out and the mid levels cool slightly ahead of the wave. Probability is low, but have kept the slight chance mention going this afternoon. Given large surface temperature dew point spreads and cool temperatures aloft, cannot rule out a strong wind gust or stray hailstone with any storms that manage to develop, as virga has already generated a 61 mile per hour gust at Dalhart this afternoon. Tonight, cold front pushes through from the north. With clearing skies expected behind this, have undercut consensus guidance. Another round of lee troughiness sets up tomorrow afternoon, driving southwesterly winds as the surface. Have accordingly nudged above consensus highs for Tuesday, save for our northeast where winds do not look to pick up quite as much. Ferguson LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday Surface low pressure across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico will deepen Tuesday night through Wednesday resulting in a tightening of the pressure gradient across the Panhandles. The surface low and cold front is expected to push southward out of the central Rockies and central Plains states by late Thursday. Strong winds will precede the cold front and may warrant a Wind highlight or headline Wednesday and/or Thursday. Blowing dust will be possible in the areas of the strongest winds Thursday. Closed upper low and trough will approach the Panhandles Thursday night and may bring some light precipitation to the Oklahoma and far northern portions of the Texas Panhandles Thursday night. Upper ridge builds in over the forecast area Friday and Saturday ahead of another upper trough forecast to approach the Panhandles by Saturday night. Surface low and cold front will push south and east across the forecast area Saturday night with frontal boundary stretching north to south across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico Sunday and Sunday night. Another upper trough to approach the Panhandles Sunday night through Monday bringing chances for additional precipitation late this weekend and early next week. Schneider FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday and Thursday across much of the Panhandles. Discrepancies in the models indicate that possibly only one day, Wednesday, or more likely both days will be favored for the increased fire weather concerns. Thursday likely to have the strongest downsloping west winds of 25 to 35 mph or 30 to 40 mph with forecast RFTIs of 4 expected. The forecast RFTIs Wednesday will be 5 to 6. The concern for Thursday will be the timing of the cold front which could move through the Panhandles early during the day or by early evening. The minimum afternoon humidities Thursday will be in the 15 to 25 percent range. Otherwise, the lowest afternoon humidities of 5 to 15 percent will be Wednesday. Schneider && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 61 23 58 30 66 / 20 5 0 0 0 Beaver OK 60 19 53 27 65 / 20 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 57 18 56 25 65 / 10 10 0 0 0 Borger TX 65 23 60 33 69 / 10 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 61 22 60 29 68 / 20 5 0 0 0 Canyon TX 62 20 59 29 66 / 20 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 66 24 58 32 68 / 30 5 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 59 17 57 24 64 / 20 10 0 0 0 Guymon OK 59 19 54 26 64 / 10 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 60 21 59 29 66 / 20 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 64 23 55 30 66 / 40 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 64 22 58 32 68 / 20 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 66 24 57 30 67 / 70 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 68 25 58 30 67 / 70 10 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter... Randall. OK...None. && $$ 89/77/11/11