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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDPUB Received: 2022-03-05 05:29 UTC
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469 FXUS65 KPUB 050529 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1029 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022 Updated forecast to expire RED FLAG warning which was in effect over the plains. Also, gusty winds being amplified by strong disturbance moving across the region and virga showers. KPUB gusted to 51 knts around 8 pm this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 325 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022 Key messages: 1) Snow, heavy at times across the ContDvd tonight. 2) Red Flag Conditions expected to continue across the plains this evening and redevelop across the southern tier tomorrow. Current water vapor imagery is indicating deep southwest flow aloft across the state as a strong jet core is rounding the base of an upper low spinning across the southern Great Basin. Clouds and isolated showers/virga associated with an embedded wave this morning across the plains have cleared with associated lee troughing on the plains leading to gusty south to southwest winds developing across the plains this afternoon, with a few areas hitting red flag criteria attm. Further west, satellite imagery and regional radars indicating cloud top cooling and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across eastern Utah and into western Colorado attm. With the expected strong southwest flow aloft and deepening lee trough across the plains tonight, expecting breezy south to southwest winds to continue/develop across the plains and will keep current Red Flag Warning ongoing through the evening hours. Latest models continue to indicate the upper low to weaken as it lifts out across south central Colorado tonight and into northeastern Colorado tomorrow morning. This will keep scattered to numerous showers in place across the ContDvd, along with the potential for a few thunderstorms through the evening, leading to expected snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern San Juan Mts tonight, where a winter storm warning remains in place. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches remain possible across the rest of the higher terrain, with the highest amounts across the central mts. Latest higher res models keep the plains dry tonight, with most models indicating the best wraparound moisture late tonight and into early Saturday morning remaining north of area into northeastern Colorado. With that said, have kept scattered pops across the Teller County and along with Palmer Dvd tonight. Passing wave sends a front across the plains late tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Breezy northerly winds develop in its wake, leading to possible showers along the Palmer Dvd and cooling temperatures through afternoon. Currently, there looks to be strong westerly developing across the southern tier ahead of the front to develop critical fire weather conditions across Las Animas and Baca Counties to support a Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM Saturday, however a faster timing of the front could bring an earlier end to the warning. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the next wave moving across the Great Basin will lead to increasing showers spreading into the higher of the ContDvd through the late morning and early afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 325 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022 KEY Messages: 1) An active period of weather is expected through next week, with multiple shots of wintry precipitation throughout southern Colorado. Sunday... The long term period has multiple chances of inclement weather, starting with Sunday. Multiple ensemble models, such as the SREF, GEFS, and EPS, are in good agreement about the evolution of the atmosphere in the long term period. This agreement between models leads to greater confidence in the forecast. A short wave trough will be digging southward over the Nevada and Arizona state line early Sunday, and will then push eastward over Colorado during the day. This system will likely be more compact as compared to the previous systems impacting southern Colorado late in the previous week, which means the system will, overall, be stronger. As this short wave trough pushes over the region, synoptic level support and dynamics, such as isentropic ascent, will increase, which will aid in precipitation development and maintenance. Upper level winds will also increase as the system treks eastward, and strong westerly winds will favor robust orographic lift over the mountains, especially the central and western mountains. Given the tighter nature of this wave, mid level winds around 700mb may take on a more easterly component during the day, which would aid in stronger orographic forcing over the eastern mountains. Winds at the surface will take on a more easterly component behind a cold front, and will induce modest surface upsloping along the eastern mountains. Given the strong system, and therefore stronger synoptics, along with the orographics, more widespread precipitation in the form of snow is expected across the forecast area. Snow will start along the mountains earlier in the day, especially the central and western mountains, and will increase in coverage eastward as the precipitation follows the system eastward. The heaviest snow will be along the mountains, but light to moderate snow is likely at lower elevations. By late Sunday into Sunday night, the short wave trough will be exiting the southern Colorado region. As this takes place, precipitation will mostly dissipate from the west to east during the overnight hours. Monday - Tuesday... The start of the work week brings another chance of inclement weather to southern Colorado. Another, slower moving, short wave trough will dig southward over the region. This wave will start digging southward Monday and will push out of the area by late Tuesday. This system is more "stringed" out and open and will be weaker, but will still increase synoptic support and dynamics as it passes over the forecast area. Moisture will also be lacking more, given its the third system to impact the area in a short time frame. Regardless though, given the uptick in synoptics and winds aloft inducing orographic forcing, precipitation in the form of snow is expected. The weaker system and less moisture will limit the coverage and intensity of precipitation that develops, and is expected be confined to the higher mountains. It is possible though that isolated pockets of lighter snow push off of the mountains as the system drops southward. Later in the day Tuesday, the system will push out the region, and with that, precipitation will diminish from the northwest to the southeast during the day Tuesday. Wednesday - Friday... Models remain in agreement that the end of the long term period will have a short lived break before becoming active again. Wednesday, upper level flow becomes more flat/zonal across Colorado. This will keep most of the area dry, with the exception along the central and western mountains where some precipitation may materialize given the westerly winds. Temperatures will also slightly warm to near average values. Thursday into Friday, another large trough is likely to dig southward across Colorado. This pattern would increase precipitation chances for the forecast area, especially for the mountains. Temperatures would also be expected to cool down, to possibly below average values. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1025 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022 The scattered showers and strong gusty winds from earlier this evening have waned somewhat, and calmer conditions will return to the area overnight, before picking up again tomorrow afternoon, with strong gusty winds and increased cloud cover expected at all three TAF sites. KALS: A few showers still linger nearby, mainly over the eastern parts of the valley and over the mountains. Strong southwest winds with gusts up to 30 kts are expected starting at 16Z tomorrow, with winds turning south near the end of the period. No precipitation is expected to impact the terminal directly, and so long as that holds VFR conditions will persist. KCOS: Wind will remain generally northerly through the period, with cloud cover increasing throughout. Winds will gust to around 25 kts this afternoon. KPUB: Northwest winds will decrease slightly overnight before ramping up significantly starting around 18Z. Gusts of 30-40 kts will be possible for several hours during the mid-late afternoon, with cloud cover increasing, resulting in potential MVFR. Gusty winds will turn a bit more northeast, but are expected to persist through the end of this forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ068. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ230-233- 237. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ058-060. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ073-075. && $$ UPDATE...HODANISH SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO