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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-02-12 18:10 UTC
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903 FXUS64 KOUN 121810 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1210 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019 .UPDATE... Issued 18Z TAFs and raised forecast high temperatures today in the public forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Temperature trends and the 12Z OUN sounding show that we will likely get a couple of degrees higher today, so have raised the max and hourly temperatures today. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Northwest winds this afternoon can be somewhat gusty early this afternoon before decreasing late this afternoon. Winds will come around to southerly overnight and increase after sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ AVIATION... 12/12Z TAFs. Outside of a very brief period of MVFR cigs at KPNC initially, VFR forecast expected. Northwest winds will be gusty, 15 to 25 KT this morning, with backing and weakening through the day. Return to southwest winds and higher gusts late in the forecast across far western Oklahoma. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ DISCUSSION... Forecast challenges for this package will be the cold front Thursday and chances for winter weather early next week. Slightly cooler weather on Tuesday as a result of the front that just passed through. This will be followed by a quick warm up Wednesday and Thursday. Trended a bit toward MOS guidance due to the southerly to southwesterly flow for high temperatures and winds. This will also result in elevated fire weather conditions across much of the area on Wednesday. Thursday's highs are a bit trickier as they will depend on the timing of glancing front. For now, set up the gradient around I-40. Another shortwave and front will pass through Friday, reinforcing the cold air. The latest GFS wants to have a tighter pressure gradient with the front, producing some light precipitation. However, right now it is an outlier and so will be set aside. The ECMWF has come into better alignment with the GFS for the timing of two more substantial waves early next week. Precipitation with the first wave will mostly be confined to the northeast. The second wave digs deeper bringer more widespread precipitation Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be cold enough to support some snow, however, details will have to be nailed down later. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 52 33 62 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 54 32 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 34 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 30 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 51 30 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 53 33 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/99