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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMQT Received: 2019-01-16 17:38 UTC
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665 FXUS63 KMQT 161738 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1238 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 445 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a mid/upper level ridge from western Canada into Alaska with a downstream deep trough/vortex in the vicinity of Hudson Bay resulting in cyclonic wnw flow through the northern Great Lakes. Strong 700-300 qvector conv and subsidence has take over as the shortwave trough that pushed the arctic front through Upper Michigan has slipped to the east of the area. At the surface, a 1032 mb high located over Manitoba was building into the Upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Lakes. NNW winds across Lake Superior and 850 mb temps around -20C supported mainly light multiple wind parallel LES bands as upstream drying and acyc flow along with inversion heights of around 5k ft limited the intensity. Today, as surface ridging builds into the area with inversion heights falling to 3-4kft and increasingly acyc flow, the LES should rapidly diminish to flurries by afternoon over most of Upper Michigan. However, the longer fetch into ne Upper Michigan will keep at least light LES going. Additional accumulations of an inch or two are possible, mainly from Alger county into northern Luce. Expect below average temps with highs in the teens. Tonight, winds backing to the southwest will push the remaining LES mostly offshore but may brush the northwest Keweenaw Peninsula. Some clearing inland will allow temps to drop at or below 0F for typical cold spots. Otherwise, readings closer to 10 are expected near the Great Lakes. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 308 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough and closed low off the Pacific NW, a trough in the mid Mississippi valley and a broad trough across central and eastern Canada 12z Thu. The upper Great Lakes remains in an upper trough from 12z Thu through 12z Sat. Looks to be a prolonged lake effect snow event this forecast period with little change in the winds and temperatures which will stay below normal. Bumped pops up to the previous forecast as they were too low in superblend and added some qpf in as well as the models are underdoing the lake effect snow a bit. These were the major changes to the forecast made. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb deep trough in the southern plains 12z Sat with very cold air at 850 mb in Canada. A piece of this cold air moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun as the 500 mb trough moves to the northeast into the ern U.S. with 850 mb temperatures down to -28C across Lake Superior. The trough moves into New England 12z Mon with the coldest air to the east. A trough moves back into the northern plains 12z Tue and this moves into the upper Great Lakes on Wed. Below normal temperatures continue for this forecast with mostly lake effect snow as the only weather as storm systems stay well away from the area with cold air pouring across Lake Superior. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1238 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019 Lingering lake effect snow showers will continue to dissipate and/or push offshore through this afternoon and early evening. As these showers dissipate, MVFR ceilings will scatter out. Broken mid to upper level clouds will filter in overnight into Thursday morning, with the potential for MVFR ceilings and snow showers to return towards the end of this TAF period. West to northwest winds will become light and variable as high pressure moves overhead, and then southerly Thursday morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 445 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019 35-40 knot nnw gales will linger early this morning. Winds will then diminish quickly blo gales this morning as high pressure builds in quickly from the west. Winds will generally stay below 30 knots through the rest of the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ242>245-248>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Ritzman MARINE...JLB