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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF Received: 2018-09-23 08:28 UTC
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338 FXUS64 KMAF 230828 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 328 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018 .DISCUSSION... Hopefully everyone enjoyed the cooler temperatures yesterday on the first day of fall as late summer-like temperatures return to start the new week. We are finally seeing widespread temperatures into the 50's the last couple of mornings which is a bit late this year. The last time we saw temperatures this cool was way back in early May. Weak upper ridging builds in today as the system that brought all the rain to Texas moves off to the east. High temperatures will rebound to near normal this afternoon with dry conditions expected. Look for even warmer temperatures (maybe even hot) Monday and Tuesday as a mid level thermal ridge develops from northern Mexico north to the Southern High Plains. Upper flow then becomes more zonal over our region by midweek as a large upper through develops over the Northern Plains. This trough will send a cold front south as it moves toward the Great Lakes. The front will arrive in our area late Tuesday/early Wednesday. There will be sufficient moisture in place for scattered showers and storms along and behind the front, but heavy rainfall is not expected at this time. Temperatures will fall back below normal Wednesday before rebounding to end the week. Long range models begin to differ next weekend as the ECMWF places an upper ridge over the Gulf and develops southwest flow aloft across our area. This solution would mean more rain and cooler temperatures for us. The GFS is a bit further west with the ridge, thus drier and warmer. Will not change much in the extended for now until confidence increases in one solution versus the other. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 81 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 84 57 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 83 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 81 57 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 80 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 83 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 80 49 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 83 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 82 59 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 83 58 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 44/29