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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-11-09 04:33 UTC
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896 FXUS64 KLUB 090433 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1033 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018 .AVIATION... Drier air a little slower to work in than anticipated with MVFR ceilings likely to hang at least through the first few hours of the forecast after which time VFR conditions are expected to prevail. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ DISCUSSION... This forecast features a possible first freeze of the season for some counties off the Caprock Friday night, and much colder air and the potential for our first wintry weather of the season by late Sunday into Monday. Before we jump into the fun, low clouds have held tough today and this has kept temperatures cool...only in the middle and upper 40s at 21Z. These low clouds will persist at most spots into the evening hours and could even be productive at times generating pockets of drizzle. In addition, mid/upper level lift from a shearing out upper trough will traverse the region overnight. This could generate a few showers, though a reinforcing shot of surface ridging will advect in cooler and drier air at the lower levels (and tend to thwart the risk of measurable precipitation). Still isolated light showers can't be completely ruled out and there may even be enough cold air for a few snowflakes across the northwest zones after midnight. Relatively quiet weather will follow Friday and Saturday as the progressive surface ridge shifts eastward to the Mississippi River Valley by Saturday. Before exiting the region, the ridge will provide another cool day tomorrow complete with more sunshine, though a fair amount of mid-level cloud cover may persist over at least the southern half or so of the CWA. This cloud cover will like linger Friday night and could have ramification on overnight temperatures. Right now it looks like our northern zones will be most likely to maintain mostly clear conditions much of the night and this should allow temperatures to dip to near or slightly below the freezing mark. Given that the southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains have yet to experience a freeze this fall we have decided to hoist a freeze watch there (though they are now slightly beyond their average first freeze date). Breezy southerly return flow will follow on Saturday which will help highs recover into the lower to middle 50s. A milder night will greet us Saturday night before much bigger changes. The upper flow will buckle as an upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast and this will open the door for the coldest air of the season to plunge southward down the High Plains. There remain modest timing differences with the Sunday cold front which could impact highs, but regardless, much colder air should be pouring in by late in the day (if not earlier). This air mass should secure widespread freezing conditions for most spots by Monday morning, and if any place escapes a freeze then, like the Rolling Plains, they will most definitely experience one Monday night. In addition to the cold, an upper trough with one or two embedded disturbances will approach and pass late Sunday into Monday. As they do so, large scale ascent will quickly increase Sunday evening and continue into Monday morning before quickly diminishing from west-to-east. This should support widespread precipitation in the region, with the latest trends looking like much of the CWA could see at least some precipitation. It could begin as rain but would quickly change over to snow as the vertical column cools Sunday night, with the potential for accumulating snowfall. It is too early to get into snow amounts, but accumulating snowfall is looking more likely for the region and we have heightened the wording in the HWO. It will definitely be something to keep an eye as we refine the forecast over the coming days. Dry weather will resume behind the upper trough by Monday evening and should continue through the remainder of the forecast as northwesterly flow aloft gradually backs and weakens. Temperatures will moderate through the middle of next week as the surface high departs and heights climb, though any residual snowfall could temper warming a bit early on. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for TXZ025-026-031-032. && $$ 07