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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-10-17 17:03 UTC
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188 FXUS63 KIWX 171703 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 103 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 A breezy and sunny day is in store for the region, with high temperatures in the 60's. Expect continued dry conditions and a gradual warming trend through the rest of the work week. Highs will range from the upper 60's to low-mid 70's through the weekend. The next chance for rain will be late Saturday night into Sunday as a frontal boundary works its way through the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Our quiet stretch of weather continues through the short term, as surface high pressure expanding from the central and southern plains rests overhead. This high will expand and strengthen through the week. On the northwest side of the high lies a weak shortwave/trough (per obs/satellite) that will serve to gradually tighten the pressure gradient over our CWA as it moves closer. This shortwave will quickly be washed out as it intersects the building ridge aloft, so we won't see any precip or really cloud cover from this- but we'll see an increase in the winds today, with gusts up to 20-25 knots possible. A small craft advisory is in effect for our nearshore zones, as the gusty southwest winds will lead to choppy conditions. Highs today will be in the 60's. Lows tonight will drop into the 40's. Despite clear skies and our cooler airmass, stronger winds should keep temps a little warmer tonight than they were last night. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Thanks to our expanding ridge aloft, high pressure will remain in place through the weekend, with temperatures warming to above normal for this time of year. Highs will range from the upper 60's to low- mid 70's through the weekend. Our next chances for precipitation will be Saturday night into Tuesday. Last night, models agreed on the general plan for precipitation yesterday but disagreed on the timing. The ECMWF was slower in bringing the front through than the GFS/GEM. Today we see the same story-but with slightly different overall timing than yesterday. Sunday night was the timing from yesterdays run, now we change to Saturday night-with the main front moving through sometime Sunday (or Sunday evening if you go with the ECMWF). Significantly lowered pops from the consensus blend forecast-capping it around 40- 45% due to lower confidence, and kept front timing in between the two models. Significant discrepancies arrive on Monday into Tuesday with respect to the larger-scale patterns, and the associated precipitation chances. ECMWF has a long wave trough diving over the Great Lakes, deepening through Wednesday. The GFS has a closed low developing in the generally same vicinity. Given the disagreement, opted to stay more in line with the consensus but to lower pops significantly (from likely to slight chance/chance). While there is a good chance for precipitation given the upper level patterns, there is little confidence in the placement of that precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1258 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 High pressure over the area for the forecast period will result in clear skies and VFR conditions. Southwesterly flow is expected this afternoon at 10 to 15 kts with gusts over 20 kts. Winds will diminish by this evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...Heidelberger Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana