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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-08-13 08:07 UTC
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448 FXUS63 KIWX 130807 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 407 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 357 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure over the Midwest will move slowly east over the next couple of days providing fair weather. Generally dry weather will continue into Tuesday, however, a weak frontal boundary will move south across Michigan and into Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday which could cause an isolated shower in our area. There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as a low pressure system moves northeast from the Plains across the Great Lakes. High pressure will build in behind this system providing fair weather Friday. Temperatures will remain a bit below normal today, but should be at or slightly above normal during the work week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 357 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 High pressure will move across the area today providing mostly sunny skies. Wk gradient but strong insolation should provide sufficient mixing to allow temps to recover from early morning lows in the lower 50s to afternoon highs near 80. As the high pressure system moves east of our area tonight, wk waa may sustain patchy cu/strato cu overnight as light return flow develops. Temps will not be as cool as this morning with lows in the mid-upr 50s. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 357 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Upr low over ND expected to transition to an open shrtwv as it moves east into grtlks and srn periphery of circulation associated with deep upr low over nrn Quebec. This system will provide some weak forcing across our area as it moves through the wrn grtlks on Monday. GFS has been fairly consistent for last few runs on suggesting potential for isolated showers Monday. However, given expected wk instability/forcing leaned toward NAM/ECMWF and kept fcst dry. Combination of this shrtwv movg across the grtlks and another shrtwv dropping se down backside of nrn Quebec low will cause a wk backdoor front to drop slowly south across MI and into IN/OH. Although instability should increase as some moisture pooling occurs along the boundary, it still should be weak at best (less than 1000j/kg) and expect only an isolated shower at most in our area. Shrtwv off the Pacific NW coast movg east along srn periphery of an upr low off nrn BC coast this morning will move across the Plains Wed and lift ne across the upr Grtlks Thu. This will strengthen the lingering sfc boundary over our area Wed and cause it to lift ne as a warm front and bring a better chc for deep convection. Likewise, a good chc of thunderstorms Thu as the cdfnt associated with this system moves through. Dry and a bit cooler wx expected Fri as high pressure builds in behind this system. As the high moves east Sat, low level waa/return flow and wk shrtwv movg through broadly cyclonic mid level flow beneath central Canada closed low may cause showers to move back into the area. Temps through the work week should be at or a bit above normal with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1224 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 Some patchy ground fog is likely by daybreak. Kept the mention of 3SM BR at Ft Wayne, but limited the duration according to conditional climatology. The fog will mix out rather quickly with VFR conditions prevailing. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...Skipper Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana