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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2019-01-12 11:45 UTC
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675 FXUS64 KHGX 121145 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 545 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019 .DISCUSSION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]... Rain activity has decreased inland. A line of strong showers will continue to move across the Gulf waters during the next two hours of so. As a cold front continues to move east, winds will increase and shift W to NW today. VFR vis/cigs expected after around 16Z as drier air moves across the local area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ DISCUSSION... Trailing line of showers/isolated thunderstorms moving through the southeastern areas early this morning. Rains east of a line from Livingston to Pasadena to Freeport moving east at around 30 mph. Gusty winds still possible and could gust up near 30 mph with the storms near the coast. Nose of the mid level jet streak from Midland to Kerrville to Fort Polk pushing east and bring drying and the front with it. Unfortunately some patchy fog will be possible early this morning in the western areas prior to the arrival of the cold front. The cold front was in Dallas at 4 am and should be sweeping southeastward quickly today likely through the College Station area around 10 am and Houston close to noon. Clouds over the area should start eroding from the west this morning but as the upper low lifts east northeast expect wrap around clouds to push down in the northern areas keeping them in varying partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Temperatures will be tricky today with CAA coming in this afternoon but with sunshine for the south and less sunshine across the north. Have temperatures ranging from the upper 50s across the north this afternoon to the upper 60s in the southwest. This will probably need tweaking later this morning and the gradient could be even greater. Cooler weather on tap for a few days with high building down across the region. Next upper trough spinning up a coastal trough/low along the Lower Texas coast early Tuesday enhancing the cool moist flow off the Gulf for SETX. Rain chances increasing throughout the day Tuesday/Tuesday night for the southern half of the area. (Could be a little slower on timing if the ECMWF is correct) The coastal trough weakens Wednesday and another cold front moves toward the area early Thursday. The front moves through either Friday or Saturday and leading toward the slower and stronger ECMWF solution in the latter period. Rain chances increasing again ahead of the frontal passage. Also of note the ensemble spreads showing some very big differences for temperatures Friday afternoon through Saturday due to timing and strength of the cold airmass moving through the Plains. Have trended the temperatures down in favor over the colder ECMWF solution next Saturday and Saturday night. The airmass looks to have it's origin over Canada. 45 MARINE... Gusty winds are being observed over the offshore waters with the passage of the rain bands and should continue during the next few hours. A cold front will push into the Gulf waters today. Small craft should exercise caution especially over the offshore waters due to N-NW winds up to 20 knots with higher gusts tonight through Sunday morning. A small craft advisory may be needed if winds surpass caution level criteria. Onshore winds are expected to return by mid week. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 38 51 38 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 66 40 55 41 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 65 46 54 45 53 / 20 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this evening through Sunday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST early this morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...45 Aviation/Marine...24