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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2020-05-22 11:12 UTC
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586 FXUS63 KGRR 221112 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 712 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 - Mostly Cloudy With a Few Showers Further Southeast Today - Warm and Humid into the Holiday Weekend With Stormy Saturday Night - Summery With Showers and Storms Persisting into Next Week && .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday) Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 -Mostly Cloudy With a Few Showers Further Southeast Today- Most areas will see fair weather today, however skies will be mostly cloudy as the system that brought us record rainfall slips northeast through southern Ohio. We may also see a few light rain showers mainly within southeastern lower MI, but most areas should stay dry. -Warm and Humid into the Holiday Weekend With Stormy Saturday Night- Weak and brief surface ridging will move into place Saturday allowing for continued fair weather. By Saturday evening, a warm front associated with an upper level disturbance will bring a chance for storms Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is a potential that these storms could be strong to severe as deep layer shear moves in, however, a good portion of the more abundant instability still appears to stay too our south. Regardless, some organized convection could occur upstream in eastern IA, northern IL, and southern WI where there is a slightly better zone of moisture and warm air advection. The potential exists for an elevated MCS or organized convection reaching us as the system moves through overnight. Beyond Saturday a warmer and more humid airmass will move in place thanks to deep layer southwest flow. High temperature will warm into the 80s with dewpoints near 70 by Monday. Guidance still suggests fair weather Sunday and Sunday evening, then by Monday there is a low chance for showers as the warm and moist air mass interacts with an approaching trough ejecting out of Iowa. -Summery With Showers and Storms Persisting into Next Week- Guidance suggests this warm and moist profile will remain in place well into next week with prolonged southwest flow. A frontal boundary will stall out over lower MI near mid-week, offering periodic chances for shower and thunderstorm activity thanks to weak shortwave impulses and possible frontal and lake breeze boundaries. Building high pressure to our northwest then looks to push this frontal boundary southeast near the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 707 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Low level moisture will be fairly abundant today leading to MVFR and locally IFR conditions. There will also be some showers around during the day. Ceilings may increase tonight to VFR for a while but we will need to monitor the risk for fog and possible stratus later at night. At this time the risk for showers for the first half of Saturday looks low. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Wave heights will stay low across the West Michigan lakeshore into the weekend as winds stay easterly. Higher water levels will be possible however due to recent rains, as well as prolonged easterly winds supporting flow from Lake Huron into Lake Michigan through the Straits. The main concerns into the weekend will be a chance for showers and storms Saturday night into Sunday, as well as a few diurnal storms into the start of next week. We may also see some possible fog along the lakeshore Sunday through the rest of the holiday weekend as a humid air mass moves over cooler lake water. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020 Many of our rivers have now crested, or will be very soon, and begun a slow fall after the heavy rains from earlier in the week. The exception is on the Grand River, where the crest is currently located near Ada. Minor flooding is expected in Ada and Grand Rapids, with crests expected in the next 12 hours. Flood-prone locations in Comstock Park are currently experiencing major flooding, with roads, basements, and homes flooded. Meanwhile, as the crest continues down the river, a crest is expected tomorrow in Robinson Township, with moderate flooding of streets and some homes expected. Overall, this crest is expected to be the most significant on much of the Grand River since the flooding experienced in February of 2018. Here are some of the noteworthy crests experienced so far on the Grand River: Ionia: 7th highest crest on record (1.20 feet less than 2018) Lowell: 8th highest crest on record (1.02 feet less than 2018) Ada: 4th highest crest on record so far (0.99 feet less than 2018) Comstock Park (forecast): 7th highest crest (0.65 ft less than 2018) Grand Rapids (forecast): 5th highest crest (1.17 ft less than 2018) Robinson Twp (forecast): 6th highest crest (0.48 ft less than 2018) The threat for rain returns to our area on Saturday night, with the chance for rain and storms continuing into next week. At this point we are not anticipating enough rain to affect the falling trend that will be in place by late this weekend on all of our rivers. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thielke DISCUSSION...Thielke AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...AMD MARINE...Thielke