National Weather Service Raw Text Product

848 
FXUS64 KFWD 232350 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019


.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Main concern for this TAF issuance continues to be the gusty 
west/northwest winds in progress. All TAF sites are experiencing 
gusty west winds currently, but an advancing cold front is 
entering northwestern Texas and beginning to turn winds more north
of west as of 6pm. Wind speeds will remain around 20-25 kts with 
gusts as high as 35 kts through 9pm. The more noticeable northwest 
wind shift will occur at DFW area airports in the next 1-2 hours, 
and closer to 04z at Waco. Later this evening, wind speeds should 
begin to diminish with northwest winds of 10-15 kts prevailing 
overnight into Sunday. 

While predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the 
period, some blowing dust is making its way through North Texas 
this evening. This has caused several automated weather stations 
to report some lowered visibilities, as well as cigs around 4 kft.
Manually-augmented observations, however, continue to report that
visibility is remaining above 6 or 7 miles at this time. Have not
included any mention of BLDU or resultant MVFR conditions in the 
TAFs at this juncture, although hazy skies are certainly likely 
over the next several hours across North Texas. Will continue to 
monitor for the inclusion of a Tempo group if necessary to 
highlight any reduced visibilities.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail on Sunday with lighter 
northeast winds. By Sunday evening, winds will return to the 
east/southeast while remaining light, and have introduced this 
wind shift in the extended DFW TAF. 

-Stalley

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 331 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/
/Tonight/

The strong shortwave responsible for this morning's storms and
strong afternoon winds will be departing the region overnight. As
it does so, wind speeds will begin to decrease as the near-surface
atmosphere becomes decoupled from the stronger winds aloft. 
Northwesterly winds will prevail through the night as a secondary 
front makes its way through the region around sunset. 

Mostly clear skies, a building surface high pressure, and calmer 
winds will yield temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than last 
night. Temperatures will range between the lower 30s in the
northwest to the lower 40s across the Brazos Valley. 

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/
/Sunday through Saturday/

High pressure will settle in across North Texas on Sunday with
winds diminishing to around 5 mph under mostly sunny skies.
Despite it being cooler with highs in the upper 50s to near 60, it
should be a nice day with the sunny skies. 

The weather through the upcoming week will be relatively quiet 
with only a few low chances for rainfall and the potential for
colder air by the end of the week. We'll remain in a relatively
weak zonal pattern through mid week with the more active polar
branch of the jet remaining in Canada. The surface high that
settles in tomorrow will spread to the east on Monday and we
should see a return to southerly flow and gradually warming
temperatures. Moisture return will be slow given the lack of any
significant deepening surface low across the Plains, but by late
Monday night a weak disturbance embedded in the westerly flow will
approach the region. This should be enough to allow southerly flow
off the surface to increase and low clouds to overspread the
region. As this disturbance swings through on Tuesday, low rain
chances will be possible mainly across our southeast counties
where the better moisture will be located.

We'll hang on to some low rain chances Wednesday and Thursday
areawide as another shortwave swings through the northern Plains
and sends a cold front into the region likely on Wednesday night.
It's a little unclear with respect to how strong this initial
front will be given the lack of more amplified flow aloft, but
there appears to be sufficient consensus among the guidance that
some type of cold front will be in the region. Moisture and
instability also remain in question, so we'll just mention showers
for now, but the potential for some thunder may exist as we get
closer.

Otherwise, the blocking pattern over the western U.S. will break
down late week with a strong trough swinging through the Plains on
Friday. This should send a strong cold front southward just in
time for next weekend.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    38  59  37  63  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                37  60  37  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               36  57  35  61  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              34  58  35  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            34  58  35  62  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              38  60  37  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             36  59  36  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Corsicana           38  60  37  63  47 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              36  60  38  63  47 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Mineral Wells       33  60  34  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>120-129>133-141.

&&

$$

26/24