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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-08-21 23:58 UTC
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786 FXUS64 KFWD 212358 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 658 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFs/ Challenges: Nothing major, just minor wind shifts less than 10 knots. VFR throughout the forecast for all airports. NE winds around 10 knots this evening will become light E-ESE Wednesday 4-6 knots. Any haze being drawn down across parts of the area from wildfires across the PAC NW and Rockies is becoming more elevated and do not expect any VSBY restrictions the next 24 to 30 hours. Isolated TS/-SHRA will remain south of Waco and in the vicinity of a weak surface front over Central TX that is expected to wash out the next 24 hours. A broad surface ridge of high pressure will remain anchored across E TX and through the Lower MS Valley tonight and Wednesday...resulting in wind speeds less than 10 knots. 05/ && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/ /Tonight/ Thunderstorms will remain possible this evening across the Central Texas counties due to the presence of a weak front. Activity has already developed along a line from Goldthwaite to Hearne, and may increase in coverage over the next couple of hours. Outflow mergers should once again allow isolated storms to persist an hour or so after sunset. Good instability is present along the front, so a few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning. The lack of shear and overall weak flow at all levels will keep the severe threat fairly low. Storms will dissipate late this evening giving way to a mostly clear and dry overnight period. Smoke carried into the region from wildfires in the Northwest States will keep the hazy conditions going through the night, following what may be another picturesque sunset. Pleasant conditions can be expected north of the front with lows falling into the upper 60s from I-30 to the Red River. Lower and middle 70s can be expected elsewhere. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 326 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/ /Wednesday and beyond/ Quiet, rain-free, and hot weather is expected through next week as an upper level high parks itself over Texas and the Southern Plains. Hazy conditions will continue on Wednesday as smoke from ongoing wildfires by the Canadian Rockies lingers across North and Central Texas. Conditions should be similar to today as the vertically integrated smoke amounts from the experimental HRRR remain nearly the same. Visibility will still remain above 5 miles, but the combination of the smoke from wildfires and high amounts of ozone will be unhealthy for sensitive groups. Temperatures will be near normal across North Texas and slightly above normal across Central Texas. As the upper level high builds over North and Central Texas and subsidence increases, the return of triple digit heat is expected on Thursday in Central Texas and Friday across the region. Southerly low-level winds are expected to organize into this weekend and will allow for temperatures to "cool" slightly. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s through next Wednesday. Heat index values will top out between 99 to 103 degrees as dewpoints mix out each afternoon. There are some areas east of I-35 that may reach heat advisory criteria early next week and we'll continue to monitor this potential. Villanueva && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 96 75 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 73 100 74 101 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 67 91 70 94 72 / 0 5 0 5 0 Denton 68 95 72 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 68 94 72 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 74 97 76 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 69 96 73 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 71 97 73 98 76 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 100 72 100 75 / 20 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 70 96 71 99 74 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 05/91