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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-08-10 15:57 UTC
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215 FXUS64 KFWD 101557 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1057 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018 .UPDATE... An expansive area of showers and embedded thunderstorms--roughly along and south of the I-20/30 corridors--was forced by early- morning isentropic upglide. Area VWPs indicate that the earlier 25-35 kt, largely convergent flow, in the 925-850 mb layer continues to veer and weaken late this morning. As a result, the main forcing from upglide/warm advection is diminishing, and this explains recent trends seen in radar imagery. Overall, anticipate a gradual downtrend in both convective vigor and coverage into the early-afternoon hours, with most of the precipitation in the form of a highly beneficial rainfall, which is certainly welcome relief to D3 and D4 drought-stricken North and Central Texas. I've pared PoPs back across our immediate Red River and far southern counties (which unfortunately will miss out on the wetting rains). I've also significantly cut back on PoPs later this afternoon as this large area of precipitation has exhausted numerous stabilizing outflows both to the north and south. With extremely weak low-level flow and a dearth of large-scale forcing mechanisms, convective re-development this afternoon seems pretty doubtful, especially given lingering meso-alpha-scale-induced subsidence in the wake of this morning's convection. Temperatures will also be tricky today, and I've trimmed several degrees of our highs where cloud cover is expected to remain thick into the afternoon. Locales near the Red River and Central Texas will still likely see their temperatures rise into the low and mid 90s, but mid and upper 80s seem more likely from I-20 and down to a Gatesville to Athens line. Carlaw && .AVIATION... /Issued 643 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018/ Abundant moisture and weak flow aloft is leading to another day of disorganized convection across North and Central Texas. The current thinking based on recent RADAR trends and high resolution guidance is that we will likely see the two areas south of DFW TRACON fill in and stream slowly east this morning. The only TEMPO thunder group at this time is for the KACT TAF where storm clusters may fill in overhead during the next few hours. VCTS should suffice at least in the immediate future for the rest of the TAF sites. After a lull in activity this afternoon and evening, additional showers ans storms will likely redevelop overnight, but will likely occur even farther south than the ongoing activity. 30 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018/ /Today and Tonight/ An unsettled weather pattern will continue as we approach the weekend due to the presence of a nearly stationary upper level trough and a diffuse surface front. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain possible this morning, particularly in the moisture-rich airmass south of I-20 where PWATs are generally at or slightly above 2 inches. Diurnally driven convection will become more widespread as we press on into the afternoon and instability increases area-wide. Slow storm motion and abundant moisture points at localized flooding being the primary threat in the stronger convection, though a few storms may also produce gusty downburst winds during peak heating hours. Rain-cooled air should keep temperatures well below normal along a swath just south of the I-20 corridor where the highest coverage of precipitation is expected based on the presence of the weak surface front, and have gone with upper 80s for highs in this region. Cloud cover and scattered convection should keep highs in the lower 90s elsewhere. Convection allowing models are hinting and a resurgence of convection overnight, which is possible given the moisture laden environment and the presence of weak ascent. Will keep chance POPs going overnight, and keep open the idea of increasing to likely in some areas if guidance and future trends support it. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018/ /Saturday through Friday/ By Saturday morning, a slightly more amplified shortwave embedded within the longwave pattern will approach the region from the north. Over the course of the day, this shortwave will likely become detached from the main flow, and move southwestward as a closed upper level low. This feature will act as the primary upper level support for convection through the weekend and into early next week. Given the expected positioning and evolution of this feature on Saturday, the best rain chances will likely be for areas south of I-20. It is in this area that PWs will remain above 2 inches and the possibility for heavy rain does increase. A weak jet streak will develop on the eastern side of the upper level low, helping to kick up some additional showers and storms for areas across North Texas. Sunday's story will be much like Saturday with the upper level closed low parked in the Texas Panhandle. The one difference will be that upper level heights will be slightly higher across Louisiana and into East Texas, implying the presence of weak ridging trying to develop east of the region. Low and mid level winds will respond to the weak ridging and help transport abundant moisture into the region, especially west of I-35. The overall consensus is that the best associated lift will also be west of I-35. Given widespread PWs of 2+ inches across the region, mesoscale features will likely play a role in additional development east of I-35. Model guidance continues to show much drier air mass making its way from the Gulf of Mexico across the region Monday into Monday night. Rain chances will still be relatively high west of I-35 given the presence of moisture rich air. The closed low that had been stalled across the Texas Panhandle will jump back into the steering flow on Tuesday, leading to decreasing rain chances through the day. Another ripple in the atmosphere will flow southeastward across the region Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF has this shortwave much more removed from North Texas, while the GFS continues to drive it into Oklahoma and Arkansas. For now, will maintain a low chance for showers and storms mainly along the Red River. Region wide temperatures are likely to remain below normal through Monday given the extensive cloud cover and rain potential. With the arrival of the dry air and less clouds on Tuesday, temperatures will begin an upward trend, but still remain around normal for this time of the year. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 75 89 74 86 / 60 30 50 60 60 Waco 87 73 89 76 89 / 100 50 50 60 50 Paris 94 72 88 70 85 / 30 30 50 40 60 Denton 90 73 88 71 86 / 40 30 50 50 60 McKinney 88 73 89 72 86 / 40 30 50 50 60 Dallas 87 75 90 76 87 / 60 30 50 60 60 Terrell 85 73 89 73 87 / 100 40 50 50 60 Corsicana 84 73 88 74 89 / 100 50 50 60 50 Temple 91 72 89 73 90 / 80 50 50 60 50 Mineral Wells 85 71 88 70 84 / 50 30 50 60 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 90/22