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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2019-01-12 18:00 UTC
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235 FXUS64 KEWX 121800 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1200 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019 .AVIATION... MVFR/VFR clouds at FEW015-035 linger across the Hill Country and Central Texas, including KAUS this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR SKC, then VFR SCT-BKN060-080 forms overnight into Sunday. Northwesterly winds at 10 to 17 KTs with a few higher gusts this afternoon become northerly at 4 to 9 KTs tonight, then turn northeasterly on Sunday at 7 to 11 KTs, except easterly at KDRT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... The morning fog pattern is shifting east and shrinking slightly in area due to the winds in the boundary layer turning more W/NW over the higher terrain of the northern Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. These elevated winds will take a while longer to descend into the lower elevations and latitudes while the cyclonic flow aloft acts to maintain a strong low level inversion at the surface. The subsident flow will mix east on the lee side of the upper low and mix out the fog closer to daybreak across counties along and east of the I-35 corridor. A couple far SE counties were in the presence of multiple cloud layers and were left out of the updated dense fog advisory area, but a brief lowering to 1/4 mile is possible before winds perk up after 12Z. Will continue to run the advisory through 12Z and update to extend or cancel an hour either side if necessary. By 13z, dense fog areas are expected and the surface winds are shown in the rapid refresh models to be turned to westerly across the area while higher terrain areas over our nw CWA trend to the northwest. This will be the arrival of the polar front, but the frontal passage will be too subtle to specify timing for a given location as winds shift in direction and increase gradually. Surface pressure rises early today should be somewhat steady, but afternoon mixing should accelerate the cool air advection pattern with the northern counties seeing the most impacts on high temps. Southern counties should see max temps reaching above mid-January normals, but temperatures will react more rapidly by this evening. A light freeze is forecast for parts of the Hill Country Sunday morning. The cool air advection and dry air will continue through the rest of the short-term, with Sunday afternoon temperatures about 3-5 degrees below mid-January normals. LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)... Sunday night/Monday morning might have been the coolest morning behind todays polar front, but a zonal pattern aloft is suggesting some mid level clouds skirting across South TX late Sunday into Monday. Timing of these clouds could allow for pockets of clearing and a few areas could drop to the freezing mark again given the dry low level air in place. Light northerly cold air advection continues into Monday, with more model support for mid-level overrunning of moisture and clouds for Tuesday. The diurnal range shrinks, but should hold highs to near or below daytime normals through Tuesday. Included in this overrunning pattern is a slight chance to low chance PoPs for showers, and the blended guidances are trending wetter as the influences from the better resolution NAM model takes effect. Rain from this weak overrunning pattern should remain light with the best lift rooted over the TX Coastal Bend. Intermittent light rain or sprinkles could continue each day in advance of a Polar trough to impact the area Friday, but the model consensus shows the most pronounced lift from the overrunning pattern Tuesday. The Friday trough will pass mainly north of South TX leaving an uncertain picture of rain potential, but trends over the past couple days suggest a deeper polar trough that may be shifting further south with each future model run. This could signal a better chance for deep convection Friday and a more extended chance of rain into early Saturday. In addition, during the passage of the next Polar system, the pattern over Eastern Canada is sharpening meridional flow to signal a more Canadian style front for next weekend. The ECM and CMC show the colder scenarios for next Saturday, but the GFS has actually trended toward a weaker connection to the Arctic pattern over the past day. Will favor a guidance blend for now and expect future guidances to trend slightly colder while the solutions remain mixed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 61 37 52 37 53 / 0 0 0 - 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 36 52 36 53 / 0 0 0 - 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 37 53 38 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 58 34 52 35 52 / 0 0 0 - 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 40 56 40 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 59 35 52 36 52 / 0 0 0 - 0 Hondo Muni Airport 69 37 56 39 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 37 53 38 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 37 53 38 54 / - 0 0 - - San Antonio Intl Airport 67 38 54 39 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 39 56 40 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...04 Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway Public Service/Data Collection...BMW