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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2018-11-20 17:44 UTC
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625 FXUS64 KEWX 201744 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1144 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all area airports through most of this period. Winds will generally be 10 kts or less from the northeast this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings will develop at DRT Wednesday morning and last through the end of the period. Wednesday afternoon there will be a chance for rain showers across the area with best chances beyond the 24 hour point and we have included PROB30 groups at AUS and SAT for MVFR visibility in rain. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday Night)... An upper level impulse overhead will be east of our area by midday. Lower to mid level ridge builds in to continue the ongoing clearing trend with mostly sunny skies resulting in warmer temperatures for all areas today. This will be short-lived as a compact upper level shortwave currently off the northern Baja California coast moves across Central Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night. Clouds return tonight due to moisture advection. Upward forcing leads to slight chances of showers Wednesday morning with stronger forcing from Noon to Midnight. However, significant moisture return is not expected as PWs peak just above an inch and have maintained the low chances for showers. Showers end by late evening or early overnight as the trough moves east of our area. Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected. Clouds and rain keep temperatures cooler again on Wednesday. LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)... Thanksgiving looks mostly cloudy with below normal temperatures, though warmer than Wednesday due to a few more peaks of sunshine. On Friday, an upper level trough currently off the west coast near 140W moves rapidly across the Southern Plains along with a Pacific front. A brief period of upward forcing results in low chances of showers during the morning hours. Weak elevated instability may generate an isolated thunderstorm. In the wake of the Pacific frontal passage, southwest to west winds result in warmer, above normal, temperatures for Friday and Saturday. An upper level trough moving across the Central and Northern Plains forces a Canadian cold front across our area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Lack of moisture convergence along the front keeps POPs out of the forecast. A strong surface pressure gradient along with mixing of stronger winds aloft should make for a breezy day on Sunday. Temperatures drop back to below normal on Sunday, then more so on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 39 59 45 63 51 / 0 40 20 - 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 35 58 45 64 50 / 0 40 20 - - New Braunfels Muni Airport 37 56 45 63 50 / 0 40 20 - - Burnet Muni Airport 36 57 43 61 49 / 0 30 10 - 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 44 57 45 63 51 / - 10 0 - - Georgetown Muni Airport 35 58 43 62 50 / 0 40 20 - 0 Hondo Muni Airport 38 56 45 64 50 / 0 20 10 - - San Marcos Muni Airport 37 57 45 64 50 / 0 40 20 - - La Grange - Fayette Regional 37 59 46 64 51 / 0 40 40 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 40 56 47 63 51 / 0 30 20 - - Stinson Muni Airport 40 56 47 64 51 / 0 30 20 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...05 Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt Public Service/Data Collection...YB