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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ Received: 2019-04-26 20:04 UTC
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478 FXUS64 KEPZ 262004 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 204 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... West to southwest winds will bring warm mostly dry dry weather across southern New Mexico and west Texas Saturday through Monday. An upper disturbance with a weak cold front will cause breezy to windy conditions Monday and Monday night along with a few showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will also become a little cooler on Tuesday. Westerly winds will produce seasonably warm mostly dry weather Wednesday through next Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Zonal flow aloft and associated downslope winds will support lee surface troughing through eastern New Mexico this weekend into Monday. Resultant deep westerly flow will sustain transport of warm dry air mass into the CWA through Monday afternoon with above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather forecasted the next 3 days. Upper low will move into western Arizona late Monday afternoon causing gradients to strengthen with backing more southerly flow ahead of it also advecting modest amounts of moisture into the region with surface dewpoints rising into the 30s. Trough will weaken as it accelerates eastward across New Mexico and west Texas Monday night with axis east of the CWA by late Tuesday morning. This scenario will cause windy conditions western half of the CWA Monday afternoon with breezy to windy conditions most areas Monday night. In addition lift induced by trough and an associated weak Pacific cold front may prove adequate to cause a few showers and thunderstorms as air mass will be weakly unstable. Finally cold frontal passage Monday night will lower Tuesday high temperatures to near normal. Westerly winds will produce seasonably warm dry weather Wednesday and Thursday with wind speeds staying below the breezy category most areas. A weak cold front may push eastward into the CWA causing isolated thunderstorms far eastern zones. Otherwise expect continued warm dry weather most locations. && .AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z... P6SM SKC-FEW200-250 through much of the period. Winds will be shifting from the south to southwest at 5-15KTS to the WSW to WNW AOB 10KTS between 06Z-09Z but increase after 18Z to 10-15G25KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... A dry zonal flow pattern through the weekend will help temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowlands. Relative humidities will be falling into the single digits to lower teens into early next week. Westerly winds will be on the increase this weekend with near critical conditions on Sunday, but Monday still looks like a better chance, especially west of the Rio Grande. A Pacific cool front will move through with this system and drop highs for Tuesday and Wednesday about 5 to 10 degrees with afternoon breezy conditions continuing. Vent rates looks to be very good to excellent for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 91 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 59 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 66 47 63 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 89 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 78 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 88 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 56 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 90 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 61 85 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 92 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 62 89 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 88 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 57 88 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 89 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 88 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 51 76 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 51 73 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 48 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 86 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 56 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 52 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 51 86 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 54 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 89 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 82 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz