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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-01-12 17:19 UTC
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553 FXUS64 KCRP 121719 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1119 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below for the 18Z TAFs. && .AVIATION... Low clouds/fog quickly eroding with skies clearing across S TX. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Surface winds will be light to moderate from the northwest through early afternoon, then becoming north to northeast through late afternoon and continuing from the north-northeast overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 535 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ DISCUSSION... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion. AVIATION... Fog has overspread the region this morning, with patchy dense fog fluctuating at local airports. Fog will lift quickly after sunrise as drier air enters from the north. Skies will gradually clear completely late this morning, with VFR conditions through the rest of the day. Winds will turn from the north, but will only rise to around 10 knots this afternoon. Lighter winds and CLR skies will dominate the overnight hours at all locations. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Encroaching colder air, dry air aloft, and moisture ground from evening showers has produced fog across a large portion of southern Texas this morning. Cold front making steady progress into the Hill Country currently, so most of the area should see a good amount of daytime heating this afternoon. Highs will still be able to reach the low to mid 70s today before the front starts sweeping through around sunset. Model blends continue to indicate temps dropping into the low to mid 40s overnight, a good 10 degrees lower than this morning. CAA will be in full swing for Sunday, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees and modest northerly breezes. LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... The GFS and ECMWF deterministic models predict an upper pattern characterized by a transition to quasi-zonal over the entire CONUS by Wednesday. Isentropic lift and high PWAT values (GFS deterministic) are predicted for the CWA Monday night/Tuesday and anticipate areas of rain/scattered showers. An upper disturbance is predicted to enter the west coast Thursday then move across the SRN Plains/TX by Friday. Most of the synoptic scale lift associated with this system is expected to remain north of the CWA. However, the a subtropical jet in advance of this system is expected to combine with available moisture and generate at least isolated showers over at least the ERN CWA Thursday/Friday. MARINE... Winds beginning to shift to northwesterly in the next few hours with the initial wind shift line. The main push of northerly winds will arrive after sunset tonight, with winds jumping to near 20 knots. Looking a little more likely that advisories will be needed for the open Gulf waters, while marines on the bays will need to exercise caution. Winds will lower back below advisory levels by noon Sunday, with more caution advised through the remainder of the day for all marine areas. Isentropic lift expected to contribute to patchy/areas of light rain and isolated/scattered showers Tuesday/Wednesday. An upper jet streak may generate additional isolated showers/patchy light rain Thursday/Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 45 60 44 56 / 10 10 10 10 10 Victoria 70 39 59 42 55 / 10 0 0 10 10 Laredo 75 47 60 45 57 / 0 0 0 10 10 Alice 76 44 60 43 57 / 10 10 10 10 10 Rockport 70 45 58 44 55 / 10 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 74 42 58 42 56 / 0 0 0 10 10 Kingsville 77 45 61 44 57 / 10 10 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 70 48 59 47 56 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TE/81...AVIATION