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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2018-10-12 09:17 UTC
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651 FXUS64 KCRP 120917 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 417 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018 .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... Moisture will begin to increase even more through the period, with most areas starting to see at least a slight chance for convection by Saturday afternoon. for today, theta-e axis remains closer to the Rio Grande, then begins to shift more to the east tonight and Saturday. Driest air this morning will be over the NE areas and NE gulfmex, so do not expect to see too much in showers this morning. However, may see some showers toward Saturday morning over the southern areas before sunrise before activity spreads north and inland during the day on Saturday. Temperatures should warm a couple of degrees today and again on Saturday, and am generally going with a consensus forecast for highs. Am expecting generally warm and humid overnight tonight. Going more with the warmer side of guidance for low temperatures. && .COASTAL HAZARDS... Based on Rip Current Worksheet, rip current concerns should be moderate, so will allow the High Rip Current Risk to expire (or cancel early). On the other hand, water levels are still running over 2 feet in some locations, and do not see conditions improving today or by Saturday as persistent easterly flow continues. Thus, have decided to extend the Coastal Flood Advisory out until 18Z Sunday, and hopefully by then at least some areas may see improvement. Prefer to extend it more rather than have people expect improvements by Saturday morning/weekend only to have flooding issues continuing. Will re-evaluate situation on later shifts to see if things can be curtailed earlier or need to be extended perhaps in some locations until the big front comes down on Monday. && .MARINE... Seas running 4 to 5 feet with weak to moderate onshore flow will keep the water levels up near the coast. However, winds or waves are not expected to be in the SCA or SCEC areas, but will be sufficient to keep the waters levels up near the coast. No significant convection today, with low chances on Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop in wake of the Monday cold front, and will likely persist through the end of the work week. && .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Surface high pressure will continue to slide east with moisture being drawn into the CWA with the persistent onshore flow early in the long term. It is with the remnants of Sergio in the Pacific that is lifted to the northeast across the northern parts of the state that help increase the moisture transport over the region this weekend. No readily available forcing other than weak isentropic lift early Sunday morning then the sea breeze in the afternoon to suggest higher than 20 POPs for Saturday night and Sunday. Focus shifts to the cold front coming out of Canada and moving through South Texas on Monday. Overall timing is coming better into agreement but still vary by about 6 to 12 hours. Generally the front is expected to be near the northern CWA Monday morning then push offshore Monday afternoon. Rain chances will increase as the front pushes through, working with PWATs of 2.0 to 2.3 inches. Lapse rates in the mid-levels will become conditionally unstable with strong to marginally severe storms possible along the front. Despite the front expected to push offshore in the afternoon, moderate isentropic upglide in wake of the front will continue 30-50% through Tuesday. A coastal trough then develops for the latter half of the work week keeping rain chances for South Texas, especially for the Coastal Plains and across the Gulf waters. Much cooler temperatures are expected in wake of the cold front with highs struggling to break out of the 50s on Tuesday, with a gradual temperature climb thereafter. Overnight lows are expected to cool into the 50s, with low 60s along the immediate coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 87 76 89 77 89 / 10 20 30 10 20 Victoria 86 72 87 74 88 / 0 10 30 20 20 Laredo 89 76 92 76 91 / 10 20 10 10 20 Alice 89 74 91 75 90 / 10 20 30 10 20 Rockport 86 76 87 79 86 / 0 20 30 10 20 Cotulla 87 74 90 74 89 / 20 20 40 20 20 Kingsville 89 75 90 76 90 / 10 20 30 10 20 Navy Corpus 89 80 88 81 87 / 10 20 30 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...None. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM