National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2019-02-12 11:28 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KBRO Products for 12 Feb 2019 View All AFD Products for 12 Feb 2019 View As Image Download As Text
150 FXUS64 KBRO 121128 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 528 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019 ...12z Aviation Update... .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Conditions are changing this morning from IFR/LIFR to VFR behind the cold front. Outside of a northerly wind shift, an increase in wind speed, as well as a few scattered showers, pilots shouldn't have a problem with terminals this morning across Deep South Texas. In fact, as we continue through the cycle, VFR conditions look to prevail and clouds will begin to gradually decrease through the late afternoon and into the overnight. Winds should be come light and variable around or just after sunset. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):A rather potent shortwave is currently sliding eastward across the I29 and I35 corridors this morning. This wave is allowing for a cold frontal boundary to slide southward toward the region. Looking at the 88D here at home, a very dynamic set up has occurred overnight with several mesoscale boundaries developing. These boundary look rather benign so no real concern except maybe perhaps a rumble of thunder offshore. It looks like the cold front has pushed through with all locations now showing a more northwesterly wind, however, it appears the density front, if you will, is trailing (just now approaching the northern Ranchlands). Regardless, cooler and drier air is on the way and should arrive shortly. Today, think that the high temperatures occurred early this morning (at around midnight), however, depending on cloud cover, most of the area could still easily warm later this afternoon. Even in mid FEB the sun angle should be just enough to overpower the current CAA regime originated from the Pacific. Overnight, skies should be mostly clear with lighter winds as high pressure moves across the area. Temperatures will likely drop into the 40s for much of the area with at least some radiational cooling taking place. By Wednesday, high pressure will quickly slide eastward across the central Gulf states allowing for winds to veer back to the southeast. There seems to be some balance between wind speed with a more easterly/southeasterly direction that may help any developing sea fog to move inland fairly efficiently. Still a little uncertain given initial moisture quality that will be transversing over relatively cool waters, so kept mention of any patchy fog out of the forecast for now toward the end of the period. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): A nearly zonal flow overhead will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the first half of the weekend. A couple of weak fronts may drift into the area Friday and Saturday but not expecting much of an impact. Low level moisture is expected to increase somewhat across the CWA Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front approaches the area. The strong surge of high pressure will push into the CWA Sunday and Sunday night as surface low pressure forms off the lower Texas coast. Overrunning conditions are progged to develop Sunday into Monday as warm and moist air aloft moves across the shallow cooler air at the surface. Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday night through Sunday as mainly warm southeast flow prevails at the surface. A cooler air mass, increasing rain chances and abundant cloud cover will support near to below normal temperatures by early next week. MARINE (Today through Wednesday): A cold front is currently (at the time of writing this discussion) moving through the gulf waters of Deep South Texas. There is a bit of a slow response in winds this morning. Some shower activity has developed offshore ahead of the front where the max boundary layer moisture was able to pool. Gradually, rain and clouds will decrease over the next 12 hours or so. Winds behind the front will be initially moderate to strong with the highest winds remaining beyond 20 nautical miles. Seas will also increase with again the worse conditions residing offshore. The laguna looks to hang onto cautionary wording for now in the CWF, however, we'll need to watch this very closely in case winds nose upward just a bit. Gradual improvement is expected by late this afternoon as a high pressure is expected to quickly move into the region allowing for winds and seas to decrease. Southerly return flow sets up again toward the end of the short term marine period allowing for perhaps additional marine fog to develop. There is still some uncertainty with additional sea fog concerns so we left it out of the actual forecast for now until we become a bit more confident. Wednesday night through Saturday night...Light to moderate south to southeast winds will prevail across the lower Texas coastal waters Wednesday night with high pressure across the northern Gulf coast. SCEC conditions are expected on offshore Gulf waters Wednesday night and Thursday with moderate winds and seas. A weak cold front may drift into the coastal waters on Friday bringing a brief period a light to moderate north winds. Light to moderate southeast winds return Saturday and Saturday night. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Short Term/Aviation...RFrye-55 Long Term...KC-63 Upper Air/Graphicast...LF-69