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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAMA Received: 2018-07-22 10:11 UTC
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815 FXUS64 KAMA 221011 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 511 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018 .DISCUSSION... At last, just one more day of heat before we "cool" back down to near normal...meaning a break from these triple digits. Otherwise, the other noteworthy item for this forecast package includes the increasing chance for rain through next week. With these chances for thunderstorms comes the potential for strong to possibly severe weather; however, widespread severe weather doesn't appear likely at this time through at least the middle of next week. Keyword is widespread in that last statement; we certainly could have a few isolated severe weather reports. Not much has changed with respect to the upper level pattern as high pressure continues to consume the Panhandles. NAM analysis this afternoon depicts 1000mb-500mb thickness values around 5910m-5960m. This combined with 850mb temperatures 32C-36C will result in another hot day. Extra care should be used for any extraneous outdoor activities. Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks, especially any Canyon goers this afternoon where a heat advisory has been issued. Temperatures in the Canyon will be around 105-110 degrees this afternoon. Elsewhere, much of the Panhandles will be around 100-108 degrees. We will see the center of this high pressure aloft shift westward over the next several days. At the surface, a frontal boundary will transition through the area Sunday night, and temperatures Monday will be noticeably cooler. There are in fact 80s in the forecast to the north, and we have a break from triple digit highs through the remainder of next week. Going forward, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected essentially every day next week. Inverted-v soundings will be the norm in the afternoon hours, so expecting the main threats to be strong wind speeds and isolated heavy rainfall. In some cases, albeit very hard to forecast, isolated severe weather will be possible, especially in evaporative cooling downburst environments. With these negative buoyancy environments, very strong isolated winds will be possible. Where and when this occurs is a whole new question, but for now the forecast soundings are suggesting this as a possibility. There are also signs of greater afternoon effective shear which could lead to stronger updrafts than we have previously seen the last couple weeks. That being said, in the stronger updrafts we could have the possibility for hail. Bulk shear (0-6km) next week could be on the order of 30-40 knots in some areas, which would be plenty of shear to support the possibility for severe hail given positive buoyancy around 1000-1500 MLCAPE (1000-3000+ MUCAPE) nearly everyday next week where thunderstorms are expected. That being said, widespread severe weather is not expected. The main takeaway here is isolated severe weather will be possible with inverted-v sounding environments. Additionally, any outflow boundaries that form will make it hard to forecast the duration and coverage of thunderstorm activity into the overnight hours. These are the "day-of" type forecasts. A less confident forecast for next week is the possibility for heavy rainfall in some areas. Where this occurs would be very difficult to forecast at this point, but its fair to say that the middle of next week could bring these chances (48hr values between Tues/Thurs or Wed/Fri), especially areas to the north. High precipitable water values and good moisture transportation in the mid-levels are suggesting this along with slow thunderstorm motions next week. There has been several flood advisories in urban areas this month with similar situations. Nevertheless, these will be isolated events, so don't go holding your breath or telling people in line at the grocery store "they said" there will be heavy rainfall next week. All jokes aside, we can definitely use the moisture, some areas more than others. These details should become clearer over the next 48 hours, and the day-of when we see the "whites of its eyes". Guerrero && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 105 71 91 69 87 / 0 10 10 20 20 Beaver OK 104 73 90 71 89 / 0 20 20 10 20 Boise City OK 102 70 86 67 87 / 5 30 30 40 30 Borger TX 108 73 93 71 89 / 0 10 20 20 20 Boys Ranch TX 106 72 93 70 89 / 0 10 20 40 20 Canyon TX 105 72 92 69 88 / 0 5 10 20 20 Clarendon TX 106 73 92 70 89 / 0 5 10 20 10 Dalhart TX 104 71 89 68 87 / 5 20 20 50 20 Guymon OK 105 72 90 69 89 / 5 20 30 30 20 Hereford TX 104 71 92 68 88 / 0 5 10 30 20 Lipscomb TX 103 73 90 69 89 / 0 10 20 10 10 Pampa TX 104 71 91 68 87 / 0 10 10 20 10 Shamrock TX 106 73 93 71 91 / 0 5 10 10 10 Wellington TX 108 74 95 72 93 / 0 5 10 10 10 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Palo Duro Canyon. OK...None. && $$