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815 
FXUS64 KAMA 221011
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
511 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

At last, just one more day of heat before we "cool" back down to 
near normal...meaning a break from these triple digits. 
Otherwise, the other noteworthy item for this forecast package 
includes the increasing chance for rain through next week. With 
these chances for thunderstorms comes the potential for strong to
possibly severe weather; however, widespread severe weather 
doesn't appear likely at this time through at least the middle of 
next week. Keyword is widespread in that last statement; we 
certainly could have a few isolated severe weather reports. 

Not much has changed with respect to the upper level pattern as high 
pressure continues to consume the Panhandles. NAM analysis this 
afternoon depicts 1000mb-500mb thickness values around 5910m-5960m. 
This combined with 850mb temperatures 32C-36C will result in another 
hot day. Extra care should be used for any extraneous outdoor 
activities. Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks, 
especially any Canyon goers this afternoon where a heat advisory 
has been issued. Temperatures in the Canyon will be around 105-110
degrees this afternoon. Elsewhere, much of the Panhandles will be
around 100-108 degrees. 

We will see the center of this high pressure aloft shift westward 
over the next several days. At the surface, a frontal boundary will 
transition through the area Sunday night, and temperatures Monday 
will be noticeably cooler. There are in fact 80s in the forecast to 
the north, and we have a break from triple digit highs through 
the remainder of next week. 

Going forward, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected 
essentially every day next week. Inverted-v soundings will be the 
norm in the afternoon hours, so expecting the main threats to be 
strong wind speeds and isolated heavy rainfall. In some cases, 
albeit very hard to forecast, isolated severe weather will be 
possible, especially in evaporative cooling downburst environments. 
With these negative buoyancy environments, very strong isolated 
winds will be possible. Where and when this occurs is a whole new
question, but for now the forecast soundings are suggesting this 
as a possibility. There are also signs of greater afternoon 
effective shear which could lead to stronger updrafts than we 
have previously seen the last couple weeks. That being said, in 
the stronger updrafts we could have the possibility for hail. Bulk
shear (0-6km) next week could be on the order of 30-40 knots in 
some areas, which would be plenty of shear to support the 
possibility for severe hail given positive buoyancy around 
1000-1500 MLCAPE (1000-3000+ MUCAPE) nearly everyday next week 
where thunderstorms are expected. That being said, widespread 
severe weather is not expected. The main takeaway here is isolated
severe weather will be possible with inverted-v sounding 
environments. Additionally, any outflow boundaries that form will 
make it hard to forecast the duration and coverage of thunderstorm
activity into the overnight hours. These are the "day-of" type 
forecasts. 

A less confident forecast for next week is the possibility for heavy 
rainfall in some areas. Where this occurs would be very difficult to 
forecast at this point, but its fair to say that the middle of next 
week could bring these chances (48hr values between Tues/Thurs or 
Wed/Fri), especially areas to the north. High precipitable water 
values and good moisture transportation in the mid-levels are 
suggesting this along with slow thunderstorm motions next week.
There has been several flood advisories in urban areas this month
with similar situations. Nevertheless, these will be isolated 
events, so don't go holding your breath or telling people in line
at the grocery store "they said" there will be heavy rainfall 
next week. All jokes aside, we can definitely use the moisture, 
some areas more than others. These details should become clearer 
over the next 48 hours, and the day-of when we see the "whites of
its eyes". 

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               105  71  91  69  87 /   0  10  10  20  20 
Beaver OK                 104  73  90  71  89 /   0  20  20  10  20 
Boise City OK             102  70  86  67  87 /   5  30  30  40  30 
Borger TX                 108  73  93  71  89 /   0  10  20  20  20 
Boys Ranch TX             106  72  93  70  89 /   0  10  20  40  20 
Canyon TX                 105  72  92  69  88 /   0   5  10  20  20 
Clarendon TX              106  73  92  70  89 /   0   5  10  20  10 
Dalhart TX                104  71  89  68  87 /   5  20  20  50  20 
Guymon OK                 105  72  90  69  89 /   5  20  30  30  20 
Hereford TX               104  71  92  68  88 /   0   5  10  30  20 
Lipscomb TX               103  73  90  69  89 /   0  10  20  10  10 
Pampa TX                  104  71  91  68  87 /   0  10  10  20  10 
Shamrock TX               106  73  93  71  91 /   0   5  10  10  10 
Wellington TX             108  74  95  72  93 /   0   5  10  10  10 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for the following zones: Palo Duro Canyon.

OK...None.

&&

$$