National Weather Service Raw Text Product

236 
FXUS63 KABR 101147 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Large frontogenetic band extending west to east across south dakota 
early this morning combined with some cape bringing a band of snow 
along with some thunder. Pierre reported thunder earlier along with 
lightning activity showing up on the lightning network. The models 
and high-res models all show this frontogenetic band continuing to 
lift north through this morning. Upper divergence is also good over 
the region as a pv vort lifts in. With some continued weak 
instability along with this lift still expect some isold thundersnow 
to occur. The snowfall rates could be large in this band this 
morning in the 1 to 2 inch range or even higher. Also, had reports
of freezing rain and sleet and have also added this into the 
forecast. Otherwise, the frontogenesis/upper level lift weakens 
through the day only to be followed by strong waa from the south. 

The models and ensembles all show good agreement through this 
forecast period on the the track of the intense surface low pressure 
area from eastern colorado through northwest iowa and into the great 
lakes region through Friday afternoon. Several short wave troughs 
will rotate around the large upper level low pressure area, along 
with bands of frontogenesis and strong waa (trowal) through Thursday 
night into Friday. Very strong low level winds up to 50 knots or 
higher will wrap around this system mainly for tonight through 
Thursday night bringing widespread blizzard conditions to the 
region. Snowfall amounts have increased mainly across the far 
northern parts of the cwa. Overall, the snow amounts range from 10 
inches in the far northwest cwa to 20 to 25 inches from central 
through northeast south dakota. Therefore, left the warnings as is
for now. Temperatures will not vary much from today through 
Friday from the mid 20s to the mid 30s from night to day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

The long term portion of the forecast will feature below normal 
temperatures due to significant snowfall in the short term. An area 
of high pressure over the region will bring dry conditions for the 
weekend. Early next week, an upper level trough and surface low 
pressure system will pass through the region with rain and snow 
possible. Models suffer from timing issues leading to broad brush 
pops next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

A storm system crossing the region will bring MVFR and IFR
conditions through the valid TAF period and beyond. While KATY is
reporting VFR conditions, they will become MVFR by 14Z or sooner.
Can not rule out lightning for the terminals of KATY, KPIR, and
KABR this morning. Winds will also increase today from the 
northeast.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Friday for SDZ009-
     015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

     Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for 
     SDZ005>008-010-011-018>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Friday for SDZ003-
     004.

MN...Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for 
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD