871 
FXUS64 KLUB 071705
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGE...
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Mild and dry through Thursday until a strong cold front brings
  chilly weather toward week's end.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Clearing skies were taking charge this afternoon on the heels of a 
shortwave trough that overperformed with clouds and even some 
showers in the Friona area this morning. A chilly surface ridge 
centered near the Highway 83 corridor will peel east tonight ahead 
of light SSw winds which should keep lows from getting too cold. Am 
skeptical of the NAM's fog potential in the Childress area Monday 
morning as this looks overdone for 3-6 degree dewpoint depressions. 
Aloft, swift NW flow and mostly clear skies carry into Monday as lee 
troughing delivers breezy southwest winds and highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

For the remainder of the week we remain locked under dry NW flow 
which will be host to a pair of cold fronts - the first arriving 
Wednesday followed by a more robust version late Thursday. Until 
these FROPAs, a very mild and breezy afternoon awaits Tuesday thanks 
to amplified lee troughing. NBM's winds on Tuesday seem too soft for 
this pattern, so opted for its 75th percentile which aligns better 
with MOS. Lower thicknesses spill south on northerly winds for 
Wednesday followed by a quick rebound to WSW breezes overnight into 
Thursday. Thursday has potential to be the warmest day all week 
provided we see enhanced compressional warming ahead of a strong 
FROPA arriving later in the day. Am leery of the deterministic GFS's 
and ECMWF's weaker FROPA late Thursday followed by an arctic surge 
some 24 hours later. The NBM at least trended colder for Friday and 
Saturday which fits well with the more singular cold theme shown by 
the GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS. With maxT standard 
deviations of 7 to 10 from Friday into Saturday, we'll keep temps 
close to the mean this many days out until details become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Continued VFR with light winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93