610 
FXUS64 KMAF 262045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Chilly weather today is replaced by mild and quiet weather for 
  Thanksgiving.

- There is a slight chance (<22%) chance or rain and snow showers
  Monday morning in far northern Lea County north of Tatum, with
  no accumulations expected.

- High winds are possible for a few hours in the Guadalupe and 
  Delaware Mountains Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The front that moved through last night has now cleared our area and 
is pushing into northern Mexico. Behind it, temperatures are quite a 
bit cooler than yesterday's. Highs are still forecast to top out in 
the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the region (70s along the 
Rio Grande). For reference, these temperatures are about 2-4 degrees 
below normal for this time of year. Lows tonight stay chilly (mid 
30s to low 40s, with temperatures near/below freezing in the far 
northern Permian Basin) under mostly clear skies. Nevertheless, 
southerly winds are redeveloping at the surface this afternoon as 
post-frontal high pressure shifts off to the east/southeast. 
Meanwhile, upper-level winds become more northwesterly as a ridge 
starts to move our direction from the west. By tomorrow, heights 
increase as weak ridging moves overhead, setting up a mild and quiet 
Thanksgiving Day! High temperatures rebound back into the mid-to-
upper 60s, right around/a couple of degrees above seasonal norms. 
Lows Friday morning bottom out in the 40s for most (upper 30s in the 
higher terrain and far northern Basin) as southerly/southeasterly 
winds bring some moisture back into the eastern half of the area.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are forecast to be under 
zonal flow aloft, w/models advertising subtle shortwaves moving 
through the region.  This could kick off a few -SHRA during the day 
and evening, mainly in the better moisture to the east. Temperatures 
will remain cool, within a couple of degrees of normal most 
locations.

Saturday, flow aloft trend northwest as the next trough approaches. 
Westerly surface winds will add a downslope warming component to the 
mix, along with compressional warming ahead of a cold front.  The 
will yield the "warmest" day of the forecast as highs top out a 
whopping ~ 7-9 F above climatology.

Unfortunately, the aforementioned cold front arrives Saturday 
afternoon/night, w/latest GFS buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF 
at around sundown.  This looks to be the strongest front so far this 
fall, w/CAA along bringing perhaps the first freeze to parts of the 
Permian Basin and Texas upper Trans Pecos.  Sunday looks equally 
disconsolate, with highs struggling to top out ~ 12-14 F below 
normal.

Monday, temperatures begin a slow recovery, but a secondary trough 
is forecast to approach the area kicking off a few showers over the 
northern zones Monday morning.  Forecast soundings suggest a mix of 
rain/snow showers or just snow showers in far northern Lea County 
north of Tatum, but chances have come down considerably from 24 
hours ago, and no accumulations are anticipated.  Obviously, this 
bears watching.

The trough arrives Monday night, the trajectory of which may result 
in a few hours of high winds in the Guadalupes.  Tuesday, return 
flow resumes, and the warmup continues under dry, northwesterly flow 
aloft.  This will transition to southwest on Wednesday as a tertiary 
trough begins digging through California.  High Wednesday afternoon 
should round out the extended a degree or so above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail as low clouds from this morning start to mix 
out. Southeasterly/southerly winds generally remain light (7-11 kts) 
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               37  64  44  61 /   0   0   0  30 
Carlsbad                 34  65  41  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   44  69  49  64 /   0   0   0  30 
Fort Stockton            41  68  47  70 /   0   0   0  30 
Guadalupe Pass           40  60  44  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    33  64  39  64 /   0   0   0  10 
Marfa                    32  68  37  66 /   0   0   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport     39  65  47  61 /   0   0   0  20 
Odessa                   40  65  47  61 /   0   0   0  20 
Wink                     36  65  45  68 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13