279 
FXUS61 KBUF 200527
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1227 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue today, before low pressure tracks across 
James Bay bringing some light rain late Thursday night and Friday. 
Milder air out ahead of this system will give way to more seasonable 
temperatures later Friday and Friday night following the passage of 
its trailing cold front, with high pressure then building across our 
region this weekend and providing us with mainly dry weather and 
continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over the region will slide east through
tonight, with a southerly flow developing. Mid and high level 
cloudiness this morning will thin out through the day. Our 
gradual warming trend will continue, with highs in the mid and 
upper 40s, but cooler east of Lake Ontario. Dry weather 
continues tonight with lows in the 30s, but 20s for the normally
colder locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A northern jet shortwave diving down a southern Hudson Bay closed 
low will swing a trough across southern Canada, clipping the Great 
Lakes region. 

A cold front, from an area of low pressure near southern Hudson Bay, 
will cross our region Friday afternoon and evening. Overall synoptic 
moisture is not great with this system, but this front will bring 
chances for rain showers, with the greatest chances east of Lake 
Ontario which will lie closer to the better lift associated with the 
trough to the north.

While precipitation with the northern branch feature will taper off 
Friday night, a southern branch shortwave will bring another round 
of rain across the Ohio Valley Friday night and into Saturday. For 
now, this system appears to remain just to our south, but if models 
continue to trend northward with this feature...light rain will 
become possible for the southern portions of our region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will drop across our region Sunday and Monday with a 
period of mainly fair weather. There will be another shortwave 
passing across southern Canada Sunday night that may bring a little 
snow or rain to the North Country. 

The next region-wide system to impact us will arrive from the desert 
Southwest. A closed low will open up early in the week...reaching 
our region Tuesday and into Wednesday with mainly plain rain as 
daytime temperatures will run in the 40s...while overnight lows drop 
back into the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A narrow swath of low stratus and embedded fog will continue to 
bring areas of IFR/LIFR from KART northeastward across portions of 
the North Country through about 08/09z, with this then expected to 
gradually break up as a weak ESE/SE (downslope) flow develops. 
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period 
as surface high pressure slowly drifts from our region out 
across New England.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. 

Monday....Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure passing across the Lower Great Lakes will 
maintain light winds and minimal waves today.

Winds will gradually increase tonight as the pressure gradient 
begins to tighten between exiting high pressure to the east and a 
cold front approaching from the west. Winds will peak on Friday just 
ahead of the cold front, with the potential for a period of small 
craft headlines across the central and eastern portions of Lake 
Ontario Friday through Friday evening.

High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes in the 
wake of the cold frontal passage, with no more than some light chop 
expected at times this weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR/JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/Thomas/TMA