AFOS product AFDDMX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX
Product Timestamp: 2025-11-13 17:26 UTC

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FXUS63 KDMX 131726
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1126 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloud cover tonight may hinder Aurora viewing in some areas. 

- Warm and dry weather continues for the rest of this week with 
highs in the 50s, reaching the 60s Friday and Saturday.

- Next chances for precipitation forecasted to arrive early 
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Upper-level troughing continues to slide eastward across the eastern 
Great Lakes region with broad ridging consuming much of the western 
CONUS. For the remainder of today, the eastern periphery of this 
ridge is progged over northeastern Iowa. RAP forecast soundings have 
indicated a few hours of coupling with a 850-700mb 35-40kt LLJ 
aloft. Therefore nudged wind speed and gusts up by blending in some 
NBM90th percentile to reflect forecast trends and current obs. Areas 
mainly east of a line from Mason City southeast to Waterloo could 
see gusts approaching 25-30 mph prior to sunset. Wind speeds should 
decrease as the ridge continues eastward overnight. Temperatures 
tonight will range in the low to mid-30s. 

Mid-level thermal ridging will continue moving eastward and forcing 
NW'ly flow to back in the westerly direction this evening. This will 
add some moisture aloft and allow for upper-level cloud development 
which as already started advecting in across western Iowa this 
afternoon. Its expected for cloud cover to become much more 
prevalent through the evening hours into tonight. So although it 
wont be completely overcast for Aurora viewing, some areas 
especially north of I-80 could have a more difficult time catching 
breaks within the clouds. 

Thursday through this weekend's forecast continues to look tranquil 
and warm. Temperatures will remain well above normal in the 50s and 
60s and lows in the 40s and 50s. We are still keeping an eye on our 
next approaching system which continues to trend slower and slower 
with each run of the guidance suite. The NBM handles this slowing 
trend well by holding off on advertising any appreciable PoPs until 
early next week. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with only
high ceilings around FL200-250. WNW winds will diminish toward
sunset and become light and variable overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with
the exception being early Friday when fog may develop across
parts of the area. The highest probability of thicker fog is in
southwestern Iowa, but it may extend toward central Iowa around
sunrise Friday. Have introduced prevailing 3SM BR at FOD, DSM,
and OTM from 12Z-15Z to account for this potential, but
confidence and details will be refined in subsequent TAF
updates.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Lee