National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDDMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX
Product Timestamp: 2025-11-13 17:26 UTC
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387 FXUS63 KDMX 131726 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloud cover tonight may hinder Aurora viewing in some areas. - Warm and dry weather continues for the rest of this week with highs in the 50s, reaching the 60s Friday and Saturday. - Next chances for precipitation forecasted to arrive early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Upper-level troughing continues to slide eastward across the eastern Great Lakes region with broad ridging consuming much of the western CONUS. For the remainder of today, the eastern periphery of this ridge is progged over northeastern Iowa. RAP forecast soundings have indicated a few hours of coupling with a 850-700mb 35-40kt LLJ aloft. Therefore nudged wind speed and gusts up by blending in some NBM90th percentile to reflect forecast trends and current obs. Areas mainly east of a line from Mason City southeast to Waterloo could see gusts approaching 25-30 mph prior to sunset. Wind speeds should decrease as the ridge continues eastward overnight. Temperatures tonight will range in the low to mid-30s. Mid-level thermal ridging will continue moving eastward and forcing NW'ly flow to back in the westerly direction this evening. This will add some moisture aloft and allow for upper-level cloud development which as already started advecting in across western Iowa this afternoon. Its expected for cloud cover to become much more prevalent through the evening hours into tonight. So although it wont be completely overcast for Aurora viewing, some areas especially north of I-80 could have a more difficult time catching breaks within the clouds. Thursday through this weekend's forecast continues to look tranquil and warm. Temperatures will remain well above normal in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s. We are still keeping an eye on our next approaching system which continues to trend slower and slower with each run of the guidance suite. The NBM handles this slowing trend well by holding off on advertising any appreciable PoPs until early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with only high ceilings around FL200-250. WNW winds will diminish toward sunset and become light and variable overnight. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the exception being early Friday when fog may develop across parts of the area. The highest probability of thicker fog is in southwestern Iowa, but it may extend toward central Iowa around sunrise Friday. Have introduced prevailing 3SM BR at FOD, DSM, and OTM from 12Z-15Z to account for this potential, but confidence and details will be refined in subsequent TAF updates. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...Lee