168 
FXUS63 KMPX 110456
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1056 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry week ahead, with only a slim chances for flurries
  overnight tonight in Wisconsin.

- Today was the last day with highs in the 30s for at least a 
  week, with mild temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure centered over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley will continue weakening as it settles along
the Gulf Coast. Return flow has begun which has allowed low clouds
to scatter this afternoon. However, another shortwave will push
southeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley region tonight. High
clouds are quickly approaching from the west and overcast skies
are expected tonight. Some light snow or flurries can't be 
ruled out tonight when decently strong Omega exists in a 
saturated DGZ layer. However, considerable dry air below 10kft 
will make it difficult for much of it to reach the surface. The
best chances appear to be in WI where soundings attempt at low 
level saturation better. Have maintained just low chances for 
flurries or light snow. A surface occluded front will shift 
winds from south this evening to west northwest overnight and 
Tuesday. Wind gusts of 30 mph are possible with and behind the 
front's passage, but milder Pacific air will be advecting in. 
Highs Tuesday may reach the 50s across the southern half of MN, 
with 40s elsewhere. 

A quiet pattern will persist through the rest of the workweek. A
gradual warming trend is also expected with temperatures
increasing each day into Saturday when highs in the 60s are
possible. 

Model consistency has taken a hit with next weekend's system
with most of the solutions maintaining a split flow pattern. In
this scenario, a weaker wave in the northern stream is more 
progressive and the upper low in the southwestern U.S. is cut 
off and lags well behind its northern counterpart. The result 
would be a drier and sooner frontal passage with any meaningful 
rainfall staying well to the south. Still, there are some other 
ensemble members that bring substantial precip this weekend 
with the two streams phasing. Low PoPs continue to blanket the 
weekend into early next week, which may increase or disappear 
altogether depending on how the two systems ultimate interact.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The radar echoes near AXN continue to be all virga with both
webcams and observing stations failing to report any flurries,
and this is expected to remain the case for all sites through
the first 6 hours until the echoes move out of the region. CIGS
will start around 10kft, lowering a bit as the radar echoes move
through to around 8kft, then lifting and scattering out after
sunrise. Most sites end up FEW/SCT250 by 18z, further clearing
with SKC possible after 21z. Winds will occasionally gust to
20-22kts as they shift towards 270-300 by the end of the period,
with gusts falling off after 00z. There could be some LLWS late
in the period, but generally after 06z such that we can leave it
out until the next few TAF issuance.

KMSP...The radar echoes remain the primary concern as flurries
aren't completely out the question, however there is high
confidence that even if flurries arrive they will no cause any
impacts nor wet pavement.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. 
THU...VFR. Wind light/variable.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDH