668 
FXUS65 KBOU 022102
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
202 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Generally quiet conditions through the next several days.

- Chance of snow showers in the northern mountains on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Surface observations across the plains show widespread temperatures 
in the high 70s to low 80s. With the lack of cloud cover and 
downsloping winds, we have been able to warm up significantly this 
morning. At 82 degrees in Denver, we have broken today's record high 
(78 set in 2008 and 1931) and broken the all time monthly record 
high (81 set 11/17/2017). There is still a few hours left of daytime 
heating, so we could end up warming another degree or two if 
downsloping winds continue into Denver. 

Ridging aloft will keep us dry for the beginning of this week. 
Overnight tonight, a backdoor cold front associated with a weak 
shortwave will usher in cooler air for Monday. Expect temperatures 
to be 15-20 degrees cooler, with highs in the low 60s across the 
plains and valleys, and 40s to 50s in the higher terrain. Surface 
high pressure in Wyoming will track southeast into the Great Plains, 
while a lee trough cyclone will develop off the foothills. With the 
tightening of pressure gradients between these two air masses, 
southeast winds will be gusting up to 30 mph across the eastern 
plains.  

Above normal temperatures return on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the 
mid-level thermal ridge shifts back up over our forecast area. With 
cross-barrier flow of 35-45 mph, expect breezy winds across the 
higher terrain. Wind prone areas adjacent to the foothills may also 
see brief downsloping winds Tuesday morning. Localized elevated fire 
weather conditions are possible in the mountains, particularly in 
South Park where minimum relative humidity values will be in the 
teens, and winds gusting up to 25 mph at times. 

A shortwave trough will trek across the United States on Thursday. 
However, ensemble guidance has continued to trend towards a more 
northerly track of the system, limiting precipitation chances for 
the higher terrain. NBM PoPs have 20-30% across the northern 
mountains, which seems reasonable especially for the Park Range, 
which would have the best change for light snow showers due to 
upslope enhancement. Over the weekend, another shortwave will track 
just north of Colorado, with another chance for orographic snow 
showers in the northern mountains. A cold front associated with this 
system will bring temperatures closer to seasonal normals along 
the plains. With upper level ridging building after this shortwave
passes, precipitation is not expected for the plains for the 
foreseeable future. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. NW winds expected through 
the early afternoon before turning SE this evening. For BJC, winds
will likely stay W/NW today with gusts up to 20 kts at times. A
weak cold front tonight will shift winds to the NE around 06Z, before
they slowly transition back to SE by early morning. 

A cyclone will develop late tomorrow morning, which will most
likely keep winds from the SE throughout the day for DEN and APA.
Depending on the evolution of the cyclone, winds could gust up to
25 kts. Cloud cover will increase ahead of an approaching system,
but no ceiling issues expected at this time. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MAI