195 
FXUS64 KEWX 272359
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures today into Tuesday, then much cooler, below
  average temperatures Wednesday into the weekend.

- Only a few showers and storms with passage of the front Tuesday
  afternoon east of I-35. 

- Fire Weather Watch issued for Wednesday for most of South
  Central Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Our stretch of above normal temperatures is finally set to come to
an end. A trough currently situated over the northern Rockies will
dive south on Tuesday, sending a strong cold front into our region
by early afternoon. Before the front makes it though, we have to
get through 2 more warm days, particularly today as southerly flow
increases ahead of the approaching front. Highs should top out in
the mid to upper 80s, with some lower 90s sprinkled in for some
spots out west and south. Low clouds should all but completely
erode shortly, with ample mixing taking place.

For tonight, temperatures will fall into the 60s once again, but
some more humid conditions are expected over the I-35 Corridor and
Coastal Plains with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some
patchy fog may develop again, but low stratus looks more likely of
the two. Rapid mixing should result in temperatures climbing well
into the 80s for most locations outside of the Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country on Tuesday. Locations south of I-10/US 90 will likely
climb into the lower to middle 90s. Have opted to blend in the
NAM12 with the NBM operational guidance to better align with
timing of the frontal boundary and temperature drop behind the
boundary. The front should spark off a couple showers over the
Coastal Plains, but elsewhere, it's expected to be dry along and
behind this boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday for most
of the region. See the fire weather discussion below for
additional details. Winds should finally start to relax late
Wednesday evening, primarily after sunset as a surface high 
slides southward into the region. Temperatures will be much cooler
with highs in the 60s and 70s Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday 
along with the coolest mornings since early to mid April. Many 
locations in the Hill Country will likely fall into the upper 30s,
but some lower to middle 30s and perhaps a light freeze for some 
is not out of the question Thursday morning. For now, opted to 
blend in CONSMOS with the NBM25th percentile and operational NBM 
to account for the first true Fall air of the season. Halloween 
looks nearly perfect for Trick or Treaters with temperatures in 
the mid to upper 60s. The weekend and beyond looks increasingly 
warmer and drier, with no additional rain chances in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Expect some low cloud formation in the region after 06Z. Recent 
models have shown less robust of a cloud deck, with mostly 
intermittent MVFR CIGs indicated while highest odds of reduced 
VSBYs are mainly away from the TAF sites between KDRT and KSAT 
before regionwide recovery to VFR by 15Z-16Z. During this time,
winds initially stay light, below 10 kt. Main highlight of the 
TAF period is a strong cold front progressing northwest to 
southeast Tuesday late morning thru afternoon. An earlier wind 
surge is expected at KDRT by 15z, but a sharper wind shift with 
FROPA is progged for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF 19Z-20Z. Widespread prevailing
north winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts of 20 to 30 kt will develop
following FROPA at all sites and persist through at least 00Z 
Wednesday under VFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening for the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, I-35 
Corridor, and Coastal Plains. Critical fire danger is expected to
develop in the wake of a strong cold front, with surface winds out
of the northwest at 15-25 mph and gusts of 35 mph at times, along
with minimum RH values between 15-25% Wednesday afternoon. Any
fires that develop Wednesday could rapidly increase in size and
intensity, move quickly, and be difficult to control. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  87  51  68 /   0  10   0   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  88  52  68 /   0  10   0   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  88  52  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Burnet Muni Airport            67  79  47  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  88  53  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  84  49  66 /   0  10   0   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             65  90  50  70 /   0   0   0   0 
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  89  50  70 /   0  10   0   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  89  53  68 /   0  20  10   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  89  53  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Stinson Muni Airport           70  92  55  71 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday 
evening for TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209-218>225-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...Tran