617 
FXUS63 KFGF 270907
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
407 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread soaking rain thru Tuesday, heaviest/most intense
  rainfall rates will be Devils Lake-Langdon areas where probs
  of 1 inch or more are 80 percent and probs of 2 inches 20 
  percent.  
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...Synopsis...

Main 500 mb l ow is in northwest Saskatchewan. A 100-120 kt 300
mb jet is from off the Oregon coast into southern Wyoming and
Colorado with 70 kt 500 mb jet in same area. A short wave on the
front left quad of this 500/300 mb jet over Wyoming will swing
northeast into eastern/central ND by 06z Tues, in between Grand
Forks and Bismarck/Minot. It is in between Grand Forks and Minot
where the max rainfall is forecast and where the max 700 and 800
mb frontogenetical forcing will be seen with strong values noted
near Devils Lake, Rugby northeast to Langdon this afternoon and
evening and north into southern Manitoba tonight. Models have
all focused the axis of heaviest rainfall in this strong
forcing zone with probs of 1 inch or more 80 percent Devils Lake
to Langdon, with probs of 2 inches or more 20 percent. Farther
east you go the less forcing there will be as short wave swings
northeast tonight, so while it will rain all areas the intensity
will be lighter with rainfall totals less with sub 1 inch 
values noted in NW MN to Grand Forks and 0.50 inch or so farther
south/east thru west central MN and SE ND. 

Rainfall ends gradually Tuesday from the west, but will likely
take til late in the day in eastern fcst area.  

Winds today, will be near advisory criteria as 925 mb winds are
30-35 kts and 850 mb winds 45-50 kts maxing eastern RRV.
Soundings at Fargo and Grand Forks show a shallow mixed layer
for winds up thru 950 mb. If we can tap into higher winds up
closer to 900 mb or 850 mb then advisory conditions may occur
for a time mid morning to mid aftn in the central or northern
RRV, northwest MN.  

No significant weather the rest of the week after this system.
Cooling down toward Halloween but no signifcant precipitation
anticipated at this time. 





&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Rain still expected to trail MVFR ceilings by an hour or two for
all sites with MVFR cigs for all and a medium (60%) chance for 
IFR cigs Monday at DVL with a low (30%) chance for all other
sites to reach IFR though due to visibilities dropping via rain
rather than due to cigs. Winds will be a persistent southerly
15-20kts for all through the taf period other than DVL where
winds will flip northerly around 00z Monday night at about
20kts. Other hazards include a low chance for thunderstorms near
the terminal at FAR in the afternoon and near term LLWS at BJI
though a BL that hasnt really decoupled is likely negating the
potential for LLWS to actually be realized there.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT