National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBMX
Product Timestamp: 2025-10-20 11:19 UTC
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677 FXUS64 KBMX 201119 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 546 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025 - Chilly mornings are expected daily through Friday with temperatures in the 40s. A few of the typically cooler locations may reach the upper 30s. - Low humidity values are forecast during the afternoon hours for today, Wednesday, and Thursday. Light winds should preclude a more compelling setup for fire weather conditions. - A broken line of showers should accompany a front on Tuesday. Another system may produce a greater coverage of showers and a couple thunderstorms over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025 A mid- to upper-level trough moving across the northern U.S. early this week will push a front across central Alabama on Tuesday. Moisture advection will initiate today and tonight over Texas as surface ridging over the Southeast U.S. advances eastward a bit. Due to the quick progression of the front, advection of deep moisture along the front will be limited; however, frontal lift will compensate for that. Over the past couple of days, some members of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles showed the potential for precipitation. Several 00Z CAMs are on board with this scenario. The NBM has not quite caught up, but the official forecast now includes a 20% chance of showers for most of central Alabama on Tuesday. This should be in the form of a broken and relatively thin line. It's fall, so with the frontal passage comes another surge of cooler and drier air. Temperatures will moderate a bit over the weekend as another weather system approaches. Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the track of the mid-level trough, though there's some variation in terms of the forward speed. Either scenario places an opportunity for showers and a couple thunderstorms over the weekend. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours for the TAFs. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRHs this afternoon will average in the middle 20s to middle 30s; however, there are likely to be a few swaths of lower to middle 20s. Light and variable winds during the morning will become southerly by the afternoon. A line of showers is forecast to move across central Alabama on Tuesday, associated with a front. Rain amounts should be quite low. MinRHs will be higher due to an increase in dew points ahead of the front. Dry, post-frontal flow will be in place for Wednesday and Thursday. MinRHs should be in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the northern-half of central Alabama and in the lower to middle 20s for the southern-half of central Alabama. Winds will be from the northwest between 5-10 mph on Wednesday, more northerly on Thursday near 5 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 45 75 43 / 0 0 20 0 Anniston 73 47 76 45 / 0 0 20 0 Birmingham 72 50 75 46 / 0 0 20 0 Tuscaloosa 76 50 79 45 / 0 0 20 0 Calera 76 48 80 46 / 0 0 20 0 Auburn 74 49 80 50 / 0 0 20 0 Montgomery 75 46 82 48 / 0 0 20 0 Troy 74 46 82 50 / 0 0 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...08