881 
FXUS64 KTSA 200523
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

 - Gusty south winds return today, resulting in limited fire weather 
   danger, before a dry cold front passes through during the 
   afternoon. 

 - Seasonable temperatures are expected through the rest of the week

 - Periods of rain and thunderstorms likely Thursday through
   Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Southerly winds will increase this morning across the area as the 
surface gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front due 
into the area this afternoon. Strong 925-850mb flow will likely 
result in gusts of 35-40 mph across a good portion of northeast 
Oklahoma from mid-morning through early afternoon as daytime mixing 
occurs before the strong low level jet weakens. A period of 40mph+ 
gusts will be possible for a few hours from mid morning through 
early afternoon, and have opted to issue a short duration Wind 
Advisory from near I-44 and points to the north where the best 
chances will be for stronger gusts.

The strong southerly flow and clear skies will allow temperatures to 
rebound quickly today with highs expected to bounce back into the 
mid to upper 80s ahead of the frontal passage this afternoon. That 
combined with relatively dry low level conditions will present a 
period of elevated fire spread potential across portions of eastern 
Oklahoma, mainly west of Highway 75, where wetting rains were absent 
on Saturday and fuels are generally more receptive.

The front is progged to enter northeast Oklahoma by early afternoon 
and progress through southeast Oklahoma by early evening. As the 
front approaches, the winds will relax for a period during the 
frontal passage. Northwesterly winds will then pick up behind the 
front with gusts around 20-25mph as temperatures drop back to near 
seasonal normals for the overnight period. No precipitation is 
expected with this frontal passage.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Dry and more seasonable conditions return for Tuesday with a rather 
chilly morning in store for Wednesday morning as the surface high 
settles overhead. Some places across the north could approach lows 
in the upper 30s Wednesday morning with widespread low to mid 40s 
expected. A slightly warmer afternoon is on tap for Wednesday under 
mostly clear skies.

A more unsettled pattern will evolve for the second part of the 
forecast later this week into the weekend with multiple periods of 
rain and thunderstorms forecast over the region. A mid level low 
currently cut off over the eastern Pacific will meander eastward 
over the next couple of days and eventually get absorbed into the 
main jet stream across the western CONUS. As this system slowly 
lifts northeastward across the Plains during the latter part of the 
work week, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase across much 
of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as low level moisture 
returns. Periods of showers and storms will move across the region 
from Thursday morning through Saturday morning as it looks right 
now. Severe weather chances look pretty minimal but a few stronger 
storms could develop, especially Friday afternoon as the main 
shortwave moves nearby and ahead of another cold front approaching 
the region. 

The cold front looks to move through by Saturday with lull in precip 
chances noted for the last part of the weekend. Another system looks 
to arrive on the heals of the exiting one with more storm chances on 
the horizon by early next week. Severe weather potential could be 
greater with that system and trends will be watched as it gets 
closer.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

VFR will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Southerly
winds will increase through the overnight and early morning hours
this morning. Maintained LLWS through at most sites through mid
morning. Gusty southerly winds this morning will eventually veer 
southwest to west by mid afternoon, then northwesterly as another
cold front pushes through the region late this afternoon into 
this evening. Northwest winds will gradually decrease after 
sunset.

Mejia  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  50  74  46 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   82  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   85  51  77  42 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   82  45  72  40 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   77  45  69  41 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   75  47  67  43 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   82  49  74  43 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   78  45  68  39 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   85  48  75  41 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   84  55  77  44 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT this afternoon 
     for OKZ054>064.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67