966 
FOUS30 KWBC 180753
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 18 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 19 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...

No significant changes made to the slight risk area across 
Southern Missouri from the previous issuance. Models are on track 
with the overall sharpening of the mid to upper level trof across 
the mid section of the nation Saturday into early Sunday. A broad 
region of well defined upper difluence likely from the Great Lakes,
south into the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley in a region of 
anomalous PW values, 1 to 2+ standard deviations above the mean. 
This will support a broad region of moderate to heavy precip 
amounts from the Lower Lakes into the Mid to Lower MS Valley. The 
antecedent dry conditions with very low relative soil moisture, 
low stream flows and subsequently high FFG values, will be a 
detriment to widespread runoff issues. Concerns continue across 
Southern Missouri late morning into Saturday afternoon when there 
may be a period of training in the moist west southwesterly low 
level flow ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front. There 
is very good agreement between the HREF and RRFS mean neighborhood 
probabilities axes for 2 and 3"+ totals day 1 across southern MO, 
with the slight risk area drawn to this common axis. To the 
northeast and south of this potential training area, convection 
should be much more progressive, with these areas maintained in the
marginal risk. 

Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 19 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

The amplifying mid to upper level trof across the mid section of
the nation day 1, will continue to accelerate eastward day 2, 
becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it moves through the OH 
Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid- Atlantic and eastern Lakes. The 
fast eastward movement will continue to be a limiting factor for 
very heavy rainfall amounts and any widespread runoff issues. While
FFG values are much lower across the eastern Lakes into the Upper 
OH Valley and Central Appalachians than areas farther south and 
west during the day 1 period, the aforementioned progressive 
nature of the day 2 system should preclude most areas exceeding 
FFG values. Only some small changes made to the previous marginal
risk area, aligning it more with the lower FFG values across
northern PA, northern NJ and eastern NY State.

Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

The negatively tilted upper trof moving into the Lower
Lakes/Central Appalachians/Mid- Atlantic region late day 2 will
continue to be very progressive as it swings northeastward into
Southern New England day 3. While there will be an axis of above
average PW values, 2+ standard deviations above the mean and
anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux anomalies, 2 to 4+ standard
deviations above the mean accompanying this upper trof day 3, the
expected overall progressive nature of the precipitation area
should preclude any widespread runoff issues. There is model
consensus for max precip areas of 1.5-2"+ across northern NY State,
Vermont, western MA, central NH and western ME. The previous
marginal risk area was decreased in size and oriented to fit the
above mentioned areas where isolated runoff issues in the higher
terrain may occur.

Oravec

Oravec

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt