520 
FXUS65 KFGZ 161716
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1016 AM MST Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures will continue 
through the end of the week. Expect a slight warming trend over the 
weekend with near normal temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The low is centered over Utah with its trough moving 
through Arizona early this morning. The trough will cross the region 
through the day today with cooler and drier air arriving on the 
northwest flow. A secondary trough pushes down late tonight and 
crosses the region on Friday. This second trough will reinforce the
cold air moving in and we will continue to see some pretty cold 
nights/mornings, especially across the higher terrain. Daytime highs
will be 5-15 degrees below average through Friday but weak ridging
is expected over the weekend, which should allow for some slight 
warming to take place and temperatures will be closer to average. 
With the gradient remaining pretty relaxed, winds should be on the
lighter side.

A trough will pass to the north of the region early in the new week 
with little to no fanfare in Arizona. Maybe a slight increase in 
winds and a dip in temperatures. The next feature to keep an eye on 
is Pacific low pressure system that looks to track eastward and move 
inland to southern California around midweek. This may allow for 
some moisture to move back into the area and bring chances for 
showers, cooler temperatures, and a tightening gradient resulting in 
increasing winds. Not a high confidence forecast this far out as the 
ensembles are kind of all over the place but certainly something for 
us to watch in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 16/18Z through Friday 17/18Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds NW-NE 5-10 kts, 
locally gusty downwind of the terrain during the overnight hours.

OUTLOOK...Friday 17/18Z through Sunday 19/18Z...VFR conditions, no
precipitation expected. Winds NW-NE 5-10 kts each day, remaining 
locally gusty downwind of the terrain during the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry conditions with gradually 
warming temperatures. Winds northwest through northeast 5-10 mph 
each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 20-30%.

Saturday through Monday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions 
continue. Winds northwest through northeast 5-10 mph on Saturday, 
becoming south/southwest Sunday, then increasing to 10-20 mph from 
the west on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 20-30% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff