102 
FXUS65 KVEF 280549
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1049 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue 
  through Sunday across southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and 
  southeastern California.

* A low pressure system approaching the West Coast Monday will bring 
  breezier winds and drier air. Temperatures will climb back to near 
  normal for the end of September and beginning of October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Saturday. Midday satellite loop showed 
the cutoff low which has been our main weather player for a while 
centered near the Riverside/Imperial county line. Area radars showed 
thunderstorms beginning to increase in coverage while moving 
counterclockwise around the low center. The greatest thunderstorm 
coverage was southeast of I-15, and the strongest storms thus far in 
our CWA were in southeast and far southern San Bernardino County. 
High resolution models are verifying pretty well thus far, and show 
storms continuing to expand farther north and increase in coverage 
through the afternoon before diminishing overnight. Erratic gusty 
winds, heavy rain, and hail will all be in play through the 
afternoon. Sunday, low pressure digging down from the Gulf of Alaska 
should get close enough to exert some influence on the cutoff low 
and start pushing it away. As the low slowly begins to lift 
northeast, thunderstorm chances will follow it, and should be 
limited primarily to Mohave, Clark, and Lincoln counties. That being 
said, if the low is any slower to move than anticipated, storm 
chances could stay farther southwest during the day. By Sunday 
night, the formerly cutoff low should be out of here, and the 
aforementioned Gulf of Alaska low should be nearing 130W as a full-
latitude trough. As this trough swings inland, it will bring small 
chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra Nevada and the 
higher terrain of the southern Great Basin Monday and Tuesday. It 
will also produce breezy southwest winds over much of the CWA, which 
would normally flush out all the residual moisture, but this time 
could be a little different. Hurricane Narda (which should be a 
remnant low by Tuesday) could inject a little moisture into the 
trough (not enough for thunderstorms in our area, but maybe enough 
to prevent dewpoints from crashing) if it moves northward quickly 
enough. However, if it is too slow in its northward trek, the trough 
would bypass it and dry us out more efficiently. Late in the week, 
the next trough in the westerlies could reach the West Coast, with 
too much model spread to pin down any details yet. The atmosphere is 
beginning to look like autumn.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Primary concerns this forecast period are potential 
rounds of showers and thunderstorms that could impact the 
terminal. Late tonight through Sunday morning, showers are 
expected to develop and move over the Las Vegas Valley, though 
impacts from these will be minimal. Of greater concern is another 
round of thunderstorms expected to develop across the area during 
the afternoon, continuing into early evening. Erratic gusty 
outflow winds, heavy rain leading to MVFR/IFR conditions, and 
frequent lightning are expected, though confidence is low for 
storms to develop over the terminal. However, confidence is 
moderate in storms developing over the surrounding mountains, 
sending outflow winds into the Valley. These storms will diminish 
around sunset, with winds outside of storms remaining around 8KT 
or less, settling out of the east to southeast late morning 
through early evening, and VFR conditions prevailing with ceilings
around 10-12kft. 


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Lingering showers are  
expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Nevada through 
Sunday morning, with another round of widely scattered 
thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon into early evening. 
Confidence is greatest for storms to develop over southern Nevada 
and northwestern Arizona, as well as across the higher terrain of 
southeastern California and the southern Great Basin. Erratic 
gusty outflow winds, MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain, and 
frequent lightning will accompany storms that develop, with storms
expected to diminish after sunset. Outside of storms, winds will 
generally remain under 10KT and follow diurnal patterns, with 
gusty up-valley winds expected in the Owens Valley late afternoon 
through late evening. VFR conditions otherwise prevail, with 
ceilings around 10-12kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Phillipson

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