835 
FXUS63 KLMK 020748
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
348 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels 
  through the weekend with temperatures more typical of early fall. 

* Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms return 
  Sunday, continuing into early-to-mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Overall it's largely a persistence forecast as a 1030mb sfc high 
centered near Eau Claire continues to slowly build across the Great 
Lakes. On the periphery of the high we have mild and dry NE winds in 
the Ohio Valley, maintaining fresh and cool (by the standards of 
this summer thus far) conditions. Some fog has been noted in parts 
of eastern Kentucky, where clouds kept temps more suppressed on 
Friday. Less risk of fog over central Kentucky as there was enough 
clearing to start the night with larger T/Td spreads. 

Low-level thickness progs suggest max temps this afternoon maybe 1 
degree warmer than Friday for areas that got sunshine, including SDF 
and LEX. With the benefit of less cloud cover today, south-central 
Kentucky should also be able to warm into the lower 80s. 

Low-level moisture begins to slowly recover late tonight as an 
inverted sfc trof develops over the Cumberland Plateau. Will start 
to see increased cloud cover and slightly warmer min temps, not to 
mention isolated to scattered showers over east-central Kentucky 
after midnight. 

The inverted trof starts to migrate westward during the day on 
Sunday, allowing cloud cover to expand. Could see widespread showers 
and a few storms east of Interstate 65 in Kentucky, while much of 
southern Indiana remains high and dry. Cloud cover will limit 
diurnal temp ranges, keeping max temps well below normal, just 
either side of 80. Depending on the sharpness of the edge of clouds 
and precip, there could be a larger spread from SE to NW (with the 
warmer temps west of I-65).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the first half of next week, the synoptic pattern will be 
relatively static as a blocking upper high sets up over central 
Canada. Upper ridging over the southwest US will gradually build and 
spread to the east by the second half of the week, which will start 
to kick out a weak upper trough which sets up early in the week over 
the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley. With the upper trough and 
weak inverted sfc trough still over the region, there should be 
enough support for daily afternoon and evening shower and storm 
chances. Temperatures will very gradually warm, approaching 
climatological normals in the upper 80s by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Strong high pressure parked over the Great Lakes continues to 
dominate the weather pattern. Look for NNE winds to persist through 
the TAF period, staying up just shy of 10 kt overnight, and gusting 
near 20 kt during the peak heating of the day. Less diurnal Cu is 
expected compared to Friday, with a sct deck around 6K feet in BWG 
and nothing more than cirrus at SDF and LEX. Winds will decouple in 
the evening but the boundary-layer is dry enough that fog is not a 
concern heading into Sunday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...RAS