474 
FXUS64 KOUN 241805
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

 - Scattered thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather
   are expected Thursday afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts 
   are the main severe hazard.

 - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

An afternoon and evening featuring a multi-hazard risk (heat & 
severe weather) is apparent across the forecast area today. A belt 
of generally weak and variable upper-level flow continues across the 
Southern Plains, on the periphery of a subtropical ridge across the 
Southeast. Near the surface, a weak cold front continues to meander 
into portions of far northern Oklahoma, currently extending from
~Plainview, TX to Gage, OK to west of Pratt, KS.

The current expectation is for the development of scattered to 
numerous thunderstorms in vicinity of the aforementioned front by
~3-4 PM this afternoon. Provided a very hot, generally dry and 
well-mixed boundary layer (contributing to low-level lapse rates 
>8.0 C/km), along with weak wind shear, the background 
environment will support several strong to potentially severe 
(50-70 mph) downburst wind events with convection through the 
evening. While at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms is 
expected to continue well after dark, the risk for severe weather 
(beyond a very isolated/transient concern) should cease by 10-11 
PM Thursday.

Will also monitor the potential for a localized heavy rain/flooding
concern across northern Oklahoma from the mid-evening into early 
morning hours of Friday. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near and
exceeding 2.0" (greater than climatological maximum) are 
commonplace across short-range guidance this morning, and with 
potential for multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms, some risk 
for flooding is apparent. The expected scattered nature of 
convection (i.e., will "breaks"/gaps in precipitation occur?) and 
antecedent conditions limit overall predictability of such a 
threat tonight.

While the risk for thunderstorms will be confined mainly for 
areas north/west of Interstate 44, most areas will experience 
dangerously hot afternoon and early evening conditions. A notable 
low-level thermal ridge looks to establish across western zones 
by this afternoon, and a corridor of triple-digit ambient 
temperatures is probable from western-north Texas into north- 
central Oklahoma. Similarly hot temperatures will be possible in 
the moisture axis across southeastern Oklahoma, where the highest
heat indices (perhaps near/exceeding 110-degrees) will be 
possible. A Heat Advisory continues until 8 PM for all but the 
far northwestern corner of the area. 

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing 
towards daybreak Friday morning, possibly in an expansive profile 
from central into western and northern Oklahoma. While severe 
weather potential is low, lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be 
risks with this activity. A gradual transition towards drier weather 
is expected into the morning and afternoon. We have added low 
mentions for showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon from 
western-north Texas into north-central Oklahoma, along a lingering 
(weak) trough axis, and with potential for remnant outflow 
boundaries/weak surface front(s). Once again, strong to potentially 
severe downburst wind gusts would be possible during the demise of 
stronger thunderstorm cores during this time.

Heat will remain a concern on Friday, with potential for continued 
triple-digit ambient temperatures across the southern one-half of 
the area. This is also were heat indices look to climb near and 
above 105-degrees. As such, a Heat Advisory has been posted for 
portions of western-north Texas and southern Oklahoma from 1 PM 
to 8 PM on Friday.

Saturday: A more solidly hot and dry period of weather is 
currently advertised by Saturday, as the subtropical ridge to our 
southeast begins to retrograde. Continued triple-digit 
temperatures across the western portion of the area, with 
>105-degree heat indices across much of the area are likely into 
the afternoon and early evening. Additional heat headlines are 
likely for at least a portion of the forecast area. 

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

The general consensus, especially from Sunday into the early 
portions of next week, is for persistent hot and dry afternoons 
across the area. Grand ensemble guidance depicts an upper ridge 
expanding and slowly translating eastward across the midsection 
of the CONUS during this time. Ambient temperatures in the 
upper-90s to low-100s with heat indices near/above 105-degrees 
will be likely and heat headlines are likely to continue in some
capacity. 

More uncertainty in the pattern and associated sensible weather 
outcomes arrives by this time next week, when some guidance shows 
a slow breakdown in the ridge/and or greater northwest upper flow 
aloft. This would allow for low PoP chances to return to portions 
of the area.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of western and
northern Oklahoma late this afternoon through the overnight
period. Strong downburst winds will be possible in the vicinity of
these storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  97  76  95 /  20  20  20   0 
Hobart OK         73 101  75 101 /  30  20  20   0 
Wichita Falls TX  76 101  76  99 /  20  20  20   0 
Gage OK           68  94  70  99 /  70  30  20   0 
Ponca City OK     74  96  75  96 /  40  20  20   0 
Durant OK         74  98  77  95 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ032>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...14