746 
FXUS63 KEAX 160716
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
216 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Decaying convective system this morning will bring scattered
  to widespread storms to the area before sunrise. A few wind
  gusts to 50 mph are possible.

* Outflow from that convective may foster new development this 
  afternoon. Adds a large amount uncertainty to the forecast though.

* Better chances for storms after sunset. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible with strong winds and locally heavy rain
  the main hazards. 

* High heat returns this weekend into next week. Increasing
  potential for heat index values near 110 next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A decaying convective system was moving into northwestern MO as of 
06Z. New updrafts continue to develop on the cold pool side of the 
gust front, reinforcing the strong downdrafts with this system. 
However, this system should continue to weaken as it tracks 
southeastward in the predawn hours. Along and and behind the gust 
front, 40-50 mph are most likely through 08-09Z. 

This gust front adds a significant amount of uncertainty to the 
forecast. Models vary quite a bit on how far south the gust front 
will make it. Models that best handled the convection push the 
boundary to the I-70 corridor before it loses steam later this 
morning and begins to wash out and/or lift northward. It ultimately 
looks like this boundary will be in the Highway 36 to I-70 corridor 
by the afternoon. With that in mind, have tightened up the 
temperature gradient across northern MO with middle 90s forecast 
south of Highway 36. Heat index values will likely range from 100 to 
105 in places along and south of the Missouri river. At this point, 
with potential for the boundary to be in the vicinity and trigger 
new convection, potential for some high-level clouds lingering 
from the decayed MCS, confidence is not high enough to issue a 
heat advisory.

That boundary may be the trigger for isolated to scattered 
afternoon showers and storms. However, it looks like the better 
chances will come after sunset and overnight. A strong nocturnal
low-level jet will develop and help transport moisture 
northward into the boundary. The strong moisture transport and 
convergence into the boundary leads to precipitable water values
in excess of 2" through the forecast area. High freezing levels
and slow storm motions or even training of storms will lead to 
locally very heavy rainfall. HREF probability matched mean QPF 
shows pockets of 3-4" rain amounts from east central KS through 
northeastern MO. This includes the KC Metro. There are several 
CAMS showing localized amounts in excess of 4-5" as well. A 
flood watch may be needed as confidence in the area most likely 
to be affected increases. 

With ongoing convection, didn't dig into periods beyond the next 24-
36 hours. But trends continue to point to high heat starting this 
weekend and continuing into next week. Forecast currently shows 
highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values potentially 
near 110 next week. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Continuing to monitor a thunderstorm complex moving 
southeastward out of Nebraska. Storms are expected to impact 
most of northern Missouri heading into the overnight hours. 
Recent high resolution model guidance indicates shower and 
isolated thunderstorm potential expanding southward. Will 
continue to include this potential in the STJ and KC Metro 
terminal TAFs. Gusty winds may become possible with brief heavy 
downpours. Additional development is possible Wednesday 
afternoon, but will be highly conditional how activity ends 
Wednesday morning, and how far south it travels.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Krull