327 
FXUS62 KILM 201947
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
347 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast into this 
weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over
the eastern U.S. this weekend with a warming trend into early 
next week. Increased heat risk is possible until mid next week 
when rain chances may return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front looks to stall along the coast tonight into Saturday 
morning. This could enhance the chance for showers and an isolated 
storm despite the subsidence/dry air behind the front through the 
rest of this afternoon. The main issue for tonight will then be 
possible fog formation, but it might be heavily influenced by 
whether we get decent rainfall or not. For now only have patchy fog 
mentioned in the forecast, primarily away from the coast. Saturday 
then looks very typical of summer as the front looks to diffuse 
during the day. Isolated shower/storm chances will remain low and 
with the afternoon sea breeze. Lows in the lower 70s with highs in 
the lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper ridge will build over the region with steady height
rises. Sunday should fall short of any Heat Advisory 
thresholds, but temps will make it into the 90s inland of the
beaches. May see a few higher clouds ride down in the northerly
flow or some flat cu develop, but otherwise, plenty of dry air 
and subsidence will maintain increasingly hot weather with no 
mentionable chc of pcp Sat night through Sun night. Lows will be
in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The heat is on! Strong ridge builds to the north and drops down
over the Carolinas with H5 heights reaching 597 dam, peaking 
Tues. High temps will be in the mid 90s on Mon, reaching the 
upper 90s through midweek with lows in the 70s. Heat Advisory 
criteria should be reached on Mon and may see Heat Warning 
thresholds met midweek with excessive heat increasing the risk 
to extreme levels across portion of the area through Thurs as 
hot daytime highs will be followed by warm nighttime lows, 
without much relief. Models show potential for some convection 
upstream midweek to move into or near the forecast area, but 
confidence is low with such strong ridging aloft. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the rest of the day with possible
restrictions tonight. Main time period would be 09-13Z but this
might be limited by if there's precip this afternoon. For now,
highest chances will be at KFLO/KLBT/KILM but not expecting
below MVFR at this time. Stratus could also become an issue, but
the winds are light enough that I think it should be mainly fog
if it does form.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to isolated to 
scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly through Sat, with 
building high pressure squelching convection through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Benign marine conditions. Light SW winds will 
become onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon, speeds 
increasing to ~10 kts. Convection should be regulated to the Gulf 
Stream so have low POPs around 20nm out in case these move into our 
coastal waters. Seas 1-3 ft.

Saturday night through Wednesday...A return flow around high 
pressure to our south should shift winds from southerly to a 
more offshore flow but remaining very light, mainly less than 10
kts. The sea breeze each afternoon should produce a slight 
uptick near shore. Seas will remain less than 3 ft with a 
slightly longer period SE swell mixing in.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will trend upwards as we approach the new moon on 
Wed. Coastal flooding will be possible during evening high tides
along the lower Cape Fear River in the vicinity of downtown 
Wilmington through next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM