530 
FXUS64 KLIX 120449
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Definitely in an active pattern with daily storms however some 
days will have more than other. Today and tomorrow may be a little
more limited in coverage as we are in a transition but by Friday 
through the weekend and into next week don't be surprised to hear 
thunder each day. You may not actually get rain each day but 
storms will be around. 

First for the remainder of the afternoon and through tonight we will 
have to deal with a few storms. Not nearly as unstable as yesterday 
and the environment is not as impressive with respect to downburst 
potential but with DCAPE of 1000-1100 across the western 2/3rds of 
the CWA the potential is still pretty good to get a few wet 
downburst. Mid lvl temps are actually a little on the cooler side 
around -7 to -8C however this convection is primarily firing off of 
the seabreeze and then the outflow boundaries are colliding with each 
other and the lake breeze. That is the primary driver to the current 
convection as s/w ridging is expected to slide through the area 
right now and through tonight. With that this convection will be 
highly driven by the afternoon hating so it should die down rather 
quickly this evening after the sun goes down. Until then look for a 
few strong to severe storms with a few downbursts having already 
occurred across the southshore. South of I-12 along the immediate 
northshore will likely miss out on rain as any storms that try to 
fire will do so along the lake breeze which is already north of the 
interstate (hello lake shadow). 

As for tomorrow, we will likely see scattered to numerous storms 
again. Storm coverage should be a little greater than what we see 
today as we will have a trough axis to our west all the way into the 
Gulf and SSW towards southern TX. There will likely be a little more 
mid lvl flow and maybe a subtle impulse which should help lead to 
greater coverage. Moisture will not be in short supply with PWs 
expected right around 1.9-2" combine that with a steady southerly 
winds from the sfc to h7 and the seabreeze likely activates pretty 
early tomorrow, maybe between 14/15z. This should lead to convection 
quickly expanding north across the area. With storms probably 
developing earlier that will limit how unstable we get as the added 
cloud cover will hurt daytime heating. With that not really 
anticipating much in the way of severe however, it is summer, we 
have more than enough moisture in place, some mid lvl flow so we 
don't need much to get one or two potent storms. There will be some 
diffluence aloft so storms will be efficient and with the amount of 
moisture available will be very efficient and capable of producing a 
lot of rain in a short time. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Medium range models continue to be in fairly good 
agreement with the pattern and its evolution over the next week. 
This should continue to lead to above normal rain chances and along 
with warm and humid conditions. Biggest change in the forecast is 
actually to lower PoPs this weekend and into next week. Even though 
we just said PoPs will be above normal the NBM continues to 
advertise 70-90% every single day. MOS (MEX and ECX) guidance is 
considerably lower around 40-60%. MOS does veer towards climo near 
the end of the product but Friday through Sunday is not as impacted 
by climo. Yes there will likely be storms everyday and you will 
probably see thunderstorms everyday but it is not likely to rain 
over any one spot...EVERY...SINGLE...DAY. We have mentioned multiple 
times we are not confident enough to lower PoPs over any specific 
spot but dropping PoPs 10-20% across the board seems to be a better 
forecast. NBM is notorious for over forecast PoPs for this time of 
the year so with that we did drop PoPs some but still are 
forecasting numerous storms over the area each day.

Friday through the weekend and even the first half of the new work 
week we will be stuck between 2 ridges. A strong more stout ridge 
will set up over  AZ/NM/TX/Mexico border by Saturday and will slowly 
build north-northeast across the 4 corners and southern Rockies. At 
the same time another ridge will build over the Bahamas. This places 
us in the weakness between the two ridges. There may even be some 
slight trough trying to drop into the Lower MS Valley but overall we 
will be in a weakness. This does allow for convection to develop 
easier which you would think again why lower the PoPs. The biggest 
reason is that with out any real synoptic forcing storms will be 
driven solely off of diurnal fluctuations. So storms will likely be 
waiting until the seabreeze can get activated and then everything 
will be driven by boundary interactions. That said the seabreeze 
will likely not activate as fast given the very light LL winds and 
with LL winds not unidirectional and out of the south. Generally we 
need winds out of the south from the sfc to h85 or even higher to 
really get things popping earlier and that also lead to the 
seabreeze penetrating well north. So we what we will likely see most 
days is the seabreeze slowly push north likely getting a little 
farther away from the immediate coast before it finally fires 
convection. Locations like Gulfport, Biloxi and other cities 
immediately on the coast may remain dry a few days as storms don't 
start to fire until north of I-10 (very similar to the lake shadow 
along the northshore). All that said there will be storms everyday 
just not the coverage that the NBM is trying to suggest. 

It looks like the ridges will try to merge across the Gulf mid late 
next week so that should begin to lead to lower PoPs and warmer 
temps. /CAB/ 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Current conditions VFR across the area. Rain moves across the area
in typical summertime pattern with pop up TSRA midday through the
late evening hours. /Schlotz/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Winds will remain light through much of the forecast. Just the
typical nocturnal jet east of the MS river delta where winds may
be about 2-3 kts higher overnight. Main concern for marine 
operations will be the potential for thunderstorms to produced 
localized hazardous conditions. That will be the case each 
day/night through the forecast period. Do not anticipate a need 
for advisories or Exercise Caution headlines at this time. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  90  73 /  50  30  70  20 
BTR  90  74  91  75 /  70  40  70  20 
ASD  90  74  91  75 /  50  20  50  20 
MSY  90  77  91  78 /  60  20  60  20 
GPT  88  76  88  77 /  60  20  50  30 
PQL  89  73  89  75 /  70  20  50  30 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...CAB