195 
FXUS63 KIND 081044
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
644 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some showers will linger into early afternoon, mainly east

- More showers and some thunderstorms return tonight. A strong storm
  is possible west this evening.

- Dry with warming trend mid-week

- Precipitation chances return late week into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Early This Morning...

Surface low pressure and an upper trough were bringing showers and 
isolated thunderstorms to central Indiana early this morning. As 
they move east during the early morning hours, coverage of rain will 
gradually diminish from west to east. Will have PoPs reflect this 
trend.

Some light fog is possible as well thanks to the moist lower 
atmosphere and light winds.

Today...

By 12Z the surface low will be east of the area, but a trough will 
extend west from the low back into central Indiana. This will help 
keep some scattered showers across mainly the eastern forecast area 
during the morning into early afternoon. Will have some chance PoPs 
to account for this.

During the remainder of the afternoon, some brief surface ridging 
will build in, providing dry conditions and some sunshine. This will 
allow temperatures to peak in the middle 70s east to around 80 west.

Tonight...

A weak cold front will move into the forecast area this evening, on 
the eastern portion of an approaching upper trough. The front will 
slow down during the night and weaken further as upper flow becomes 
closer to parallel to it. The front will have enough forcing and 
moisture with it to generate some scattered showers and storms as it 
moves in.

During the overnight, 850mb winds increase some, bringing in more 
moisture. This will increase the coverage of rain. Will 
increase PoPs to likely across much of the area overnight.

Given the expected shear and instability, cannot rule out isolated 
strong to perhaps low end severe storm across the western forecast 
area this evening. However, at the moment, feel this is unlikely.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Monday Through Thursday.

There will be a few lingering showers Monday morning as the Sunday 
night system exits, but otherwise the main focus will be the strong 
upper level low that will be moving southeastward Monday into 
Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures and drier weather. Models have 
been trending to push this system out faster than in previous runs 
which will limit the stretch of cooler than normal weather as most 
models now bring westerly flow to the area by Tuesday with 
moderating temperatures Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure 
begins to dominate the local weather.

A convergence zone will develop Wednesday night into Thursday 
across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin which will bring 
convection to that area, but locally we're not expecting and impacts 
other than some increased cloud cover as the upper level flow will 
advect some of the cloud cover southeastward. Daytime highs will 
generally remain in the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday with 
overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Friday And Saturday.

Forecast confidence begins to decreases going Friday and into the 
weekend as models are struggling to resolve a weak and slow moving 
low pressure system across the Southern Plains and how it develops 
as it begins to push eastwards. Precipitation looks likely as this 
system interacts with a low pressure system riding along the ridge 
in the Northern Plains down into the Midwest, but the timing and 
axis of heaviest precipitation remains very uncertain. This wet 
pattern looks to persist into the late weekend and early next week 
as the jet stream remains well north of the forecast area with 
little steering flow to push out the aforementioned low.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning, then VFR this afternoon

- Additional showers and storms arrive after 00Z Monday with
  potential for MVFR

Discussion: 

Showers should be east of the sites by valid time. A patchwork of 
IFR and MVFR ceilings across the area will persist into mid morning 
before becoming mainly MVFR. Will use TEMPOs as needed to indicate 
the bouncing between categories.

VFR conditions will then continue into at least early evening. 
Scattered showers and isolated storms will move in this evening, 
then numerous showers will be around overnight. MVFR conditions are 
possible in the rain.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50