338 
FXUS61 KOKX 122328
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
728 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Long Island tonight weakens and 
dissipates, while a secondary low develops east of New England.
The low will then lift northeast on Sunday, followed by a weak 
ridge of high pressure building in from the west Sunday night. A
frontal system will approach from the west Monday and impact 
the region Monday night and Tuesday, with a cold frontal passage
expected late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Another 
cold front will move through Tuesday night. High pressure passes
to the south Wednesday and Thursday. Another frontal system may
impact the region Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast on track as areas of light rain and drizzle continue.
The precipitation has become a little more scattered as drier
air has moved into the area as the upper low moves southwest
through Pennsylvania at 23Z.

Expect occasional light rain and drizzle through the night as 
as the upper trough tracks slowly across the area. At the 
surface, low pressure dissipates to the south of LI tonight, 
with a secondary low developing east of New England. Weak low- 
level lift and moisture with dry mid levels should keep the rain
fairly light. The 12Z HRRR indicated some steadier wraparound 
rain moving into the area briefly toward daybreak, but this 
scenario seems unlikely at this time with the surface low being 
the farthest west of the guidance. However, plan to still keep a
chance of light rain and/or drizzle into the morning. 
Conditions then dry out from west to east with the rain ending 
by afternoon for most locations, but could linger across far 
eastern LI and SE CT.

Overnight lows will drop into the mid and upper 30s with a very
small diurnal change. Highs on Sunday then climb into the 50s, 
but still several degrees below normal with plenty of clouds to 
start along with a northerly flow. NBM and MOS were fairly 
close and generally accepted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak high pressure ridge builds in from the west Sunday night
with clear skies and diminishing NW flow. Lows Sunday night 
will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is close to 
normal. Growing season has started across the southern half of 
the forecast area so will have to take a further look into the 
potential for a frost advisory tomorrow night. At this time, it 
looks too warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The forecast from Monday through Wednesday is fairly consistent with 
the previous forecast with the timing and spatial movement of a 
frontal system that impacts the region Monday night into Tuesday. 
Mainly used the NBM deterministic parameters, except blended in the 
90th percentile for winds and gusts Tuesday and Wednesday in the 
wake of the two cold frontal passages, and the deterministic 
under does the winds and gusts. The upper flow continues to be 
progressive Monday into late in the week with the first upper trough 
affecting the area Monday and Tuesday, with the trough axis moving 
east of the region during Wednesday as heights slowly rise with 
cyclonic flow Wednesday into Wednesday night. Weak upper ridging 
passes through and flattens late Wednesday night through Thursday 
night as surface high pressure passes to the south. Another 
shortwave upper trough affects the area late Friday through 
Saturday. Once again used the NBM deterministic Thursday through 
Saturday, even for winds and gusts Saturday as timing of the cold 
front is uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure slowly tracks to the north this evening and 
overnight. Weak high pressure slowly builds in from the west 
late Sunday.

MVFR and IFR continues to dominate the forecast this evening 
through Sunday morning. With low pressure nearby, there still 
remains some uncertainty with any fluctuation in flight 
categories. General improvements to MVFR everywhere is expected 
by 12z-15Z Sunday. VFR conditions don't return until Sunday 
afternoon, mainly after 18z.

The steadiest of the precipitation has moved out of the area 
and now we have just some leftover -DZ, will will be possible 
through the overnight period. Some rain may redevelop for 
eastern terminals late tonight into early Sunday morning. The 
main terminals impacted would be KGON and KISP.

NNE to N winds 10-20 kt with some gusts to 20-25 kt, the 
highest winds along the coast. Any gusts should end around or 
shortly after midnight with a N wind around 10-15kt persisting.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Timing of flight category changes very uncertain. 

Gusts may be occasional this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Chance of showers late at night.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance of showers. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 25 kt. 

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs are up on all waters but are expected to be dropped later
this evening for the non-ocean waters. However, the ocean will
take a bit longer for northerly gusts to fall below 25 kt and 
seas are not expected to drop below 5 ft until Sunday afternoon.

Sub-advisory conditions are expected Monday through Monday night. 
Then in the wake of a cold frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday 
morning westerly winds may gust to around SCA levels across the 
forecast waters. And by late day Tuesday ocean seas builds to 5 to 6 
feet. SCA gusts continues across the forecast waters Tuesday night, 
with elevated ocean seas. And in the wake of another cold front 
Tuesday night, gusty west to northwest winds will be at or just 
above SCA levels across the forecast waters Wednesday into Wednesday 
evening, and slowly diminish late Wednesday night as high pressure 
builds to the south. Also, ocean seas slowly subside below advisory 
levels Wednesday night. Conditions will be sub advisory across the 
forecast waters Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure passes 
to the south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through the 
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statements have been dropped as water levels are
forecast to stay below minor coastal flood benchmarks. With 
winds more northerly and water levels over forecast this 
morning, this threat has diminished.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...