419 
FXUS64 KMOB 051900
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
200 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024
Mostly VFR to MVFR conditions across the area with scattered
storms beginning to develop along the highway 84 corridor. 
Further storms are expected this afternoon along the I-10 
corridor leading to temporary reductions in visibilities and 
gusty winds. Storms should subside before midnight as skies return
to VFR. Winds will be light out of the south becoming variable 
overnight. BB/03 

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

No significant changes were made to the overall forecast through 
Saturday. Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the 
northern Gulf Coast region today and tonight before becoming 
centered more in the vicinity of southern Georgian and the northern 
Florida peninsula on Saturday. Moisture content will remain very 
high underneath the ridge axis through the near term period, with 
precipitable water values generally ranging between 2.2 and 2.5 
inches. A few rain showers are already developing near the coast 
early this morning and expect showers and thunderstorms to gradually 
increase in coverage across our forecast area this morning and 
especially into the afternoon, when we have POPs increasing to 
between 60-70% over much of our region. Locally heavy rainfall will 
be possible this afternoon into early this evening given the 
combination of deep moisture and relatively slow storm motions. Some 
locations could easily pick up in excess of 2-3" of rain in a fairly 
short period of time, which could result in localized flooding. A 
weak surface front will move into our forecast area tonight and may 
remain oriented across our CWA through the day Saturday. Scattered 
to locally numerous showers and storms may persist into this evening 
as the boundary pushes into our region, with some additional 
localized heavy rainfall remaining possible. Storms may tend to 
diminish in coverage late tonight before showers and storms become 
numerous to widespread in coverage along the boundary again during 
the day Saturday. 

Heat concerns will continue through Saturday despite the wet/stormy 
pattern. Dewpoints will remain very high between 75-80 degrees 
through Saturday afternoon. High temperatures topping out in the 
lower to mid 90s and the high humidity will result in maximum heat 
index values between 105-110 degrees over much of the area both 
today and Saturday. We will keep the Heat Advisory in effect today 
and another may be needed on Saturday. However, the increased rain/
storm chances will help provide some relief from the heat. /21 

BEACH HAZARDS...

The rip current risk will start off LOW along area beaches this 
morning, but is still expected to ramp up considerably late this 
afternoon and especially by early this evening as long period swell 
(on the order of 15-17 seconds) associated with distant Hurricane 
Beryl arrives along area beaches. The latest guidance continues to 
trend just a little later with the arrival of the swell packet as 
compared to yesterday and now looks to reach our beaches by late 
this afternoon. The rip current risk will ramp up to MODERATE by 
later this afternoon and should become HIGH tonight through the 
weekend given the combination of the high period swell and large 
tidal ranges through the weekend. 

The high period swell could result in localized salt water flooding 
and wave run up and associated beach erosion along our Gulf facing 
beaches late this afternoon through Saturday night (especially 
vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft 
Pickens). We will keep the Coastal Flood Advisory in effect starting 
later this afternoon to highlight the potential for the normally 
vulnerable areas. 

SHORT and LONG TERM... 
(Saturday night through Thursday Night) 
Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Weak upper ridging remains in place across the forecast area to 
round out the weekend before strengthening somewhat as we head 
into the early to middle part of next week. There remains no 
appreciable upper level features evident on forecast guidance, so 
we continue to expect your more typical Summer time weather with 
showers and storms offshore and/or along the immediate coast in 
the morning gradually spreading inland by late morning through 
early evening each day. Expect scattered to locally numerous 
coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day, particularly mid 
to late afternoon. Temperatures will remain very warm with 
overnight lows in the lower to middle 70's inland with upper 70's 
to lower 80's near the coast. Highs will generally stay in the 
lower to middle 90's each day. Heat index values will likely be 
near or above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the period and
heat advisories may be needed on any given day, particularly if 
convective coverage trends lower. Additionally, please refer to 
the beach hazards section above for details on the potential for 
dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding concerns as we move 
into the weekend. MM/25



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  93  78  92  78  92  78  93 /  50  80  30  60  30  60  30  70 
Pensacola   78  91  79  92  79  92  80  92 /  40  70  40  70  40  70  30  70 
Destin      80  90  81  92  80  91  81  91 /  30  70  40  70  40  60  30  60 
Evergreen   73  93  73  93  73  92  73  93 /  60  80  30  70  40  70  20  60 
Waynesboro  73  93  73  93  74  93  73  93 /  60  70  20  60  30  60  20  70 
Camden      73  94  73  93  74  92  73  93 /  60  70  30  50  30  70  20  60 
Crestview   75  93  76  94  76  92  75  94 /  50  80  30  70  40  70  20  70 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late 
     Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late 
     Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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