144 
FXUS63 KABR 191511 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1011 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 60 to 90 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms 
  Thursday night through Saturday. Some storms may be strong to 
  severe Friday afternoon and evening. 

- Sunday and Monday will be dry and warm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Bumped up sky cover near Pierre this morning due to a persistent
patch of lower stratus over the area. Otherwise, no major changes
are planned to the current forecast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Rather quiet conditions expected across the region today as we get a 
brief break in the active weather pattern. Surface high pressure 
will be moving eastward across the Dakotas today, bringing mostly 
dry conditions and light winds. This high moves east of the area 
tonight into Thursday as southwest flow aloft persists. Rain chances 
look to increase during this time as disturbances within the upper 
flow move overhead, combined with slowly increasing moisture from 
the south once again. Although, instability will be lacking into 
Thursday with best CAPE values held in check to our south in 
Nebraska, closer to the surface front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The extended period starts off with the region between an upper 
level ridge over the southeastern part of the country and a trough 
over the west coast. Southwesterly flow will be the rule over the 
CWA until some energy and a weak shortwave trough eject over the 
region Friday and Saturday. Will see ridging build over the Northern 
Plains Sunday and Monday before a more zonal pattern develops late 
in the period. 

At the surface, the CWA will be between high pressure over the Great 
Lakes and low pressure over Colorado Thursday evening. Precipitation 
will likely be ongoing when the period starts, and will see fairly 
high chances (60 to 90 percent) continue Friday and Saturday along a 
warm front associated with the Colorado low. May see a few strong to 
severe storms on Friday, which is currently highlighted by a 
Marginal Risk from the Storm Prediction Center. Large hail and 
strong wind gusts will be possible with any thunderstorms that 
develop in the late afternoon and evening. Current indications are 
that the eastern part of the CWA will see the most rainfall, with 
some areas east of the James River Valley possibly seeing amounts in 
excess of two inches between Thursday night and Saturday morning. 
High pressure will move in and bring a respite in the rain Saturday 
night through the day Monday. A frontal boundary will track across 
the area Tuesday, and will bring a chance (20 to 40 percent) for 
showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Friday, in the 
mid 70s to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday, in the mid 80s to mid 90s 
Monday, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday. Overnight lows will 
be mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of MVFR cigs will linger over south central South Dakota
this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
area today and tonight. Rain showers may move over southern parts
of the area late in the TAF period. 


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT 
LONG TERM...Parkin 
AVIATION...Parkin